The 2024 presidential primaries and ranked choice voting
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As we head into the final stretch of this year’s presidential election, we can look back at this year’s presidential primaries and acknowledge the missed opportunities on both sides.
Many potential candidates ended up not running, and roughly half of the candidates who did dropped out before voting even began. Over 300,000 Republican voters cast ballots for candidates who left the race before their vote was counted. The candidate who won the Democratic presidential primaries stepped aside after the entire country had voted.
Thankfully, several states and territories are showing us one key step toward solving these problems: ranked choice voting (RCV). This simple reform lets candidates stay in the race without fear of playing “spoiler.” It gives voters backup choices in case their top choice drops out. And it ensures nominees have buy-in from a majority of their party heading into the general election.
Despite the generally uncompetitive campaign season, voters in Maine and the U.S. Virgin Islands used RCV in this year’s presidential primaries, as did five states in the 2020 Democratic primaries.
Read on to learn where the 2024 primaries came up short – and how RCV can improve the process in 2028.
Voters had few choices on the ballot
Over a dozen major candidates ran in the 2024 Republican primary, including a former president, former vice president, five current or former governors, two U.S. senators, and a member of Congress. More than half of them dropped out before a single state held its primary – denying voters a wide array of choices. By Super Tuesday, the single biggest day of voting across the country, just Donald Trump and Nikki Haley remained.
How long did Republican candidates stay in the race?
| Withdrew before Iowa caucus | Doug Burgum, Chris Christie, Larry Elder, Will Hurd, Perry Johnson, Mike Pence, Tim Scott, Francis Suarez |
| Withdrew before Super Tuesday | Ryan Binkley, Vivek Ramaswamy, Asa Hutchinson, Ron DeSantis |
| Remained through Super Tuesday | Nikki Haley, Donald Trump |
Many candidates dropped out after facing intense pressure from interest groups to avoid splitting the anti-Trump vote. Chris Christie, for example, faced intense pressure from prominent critics of Donald Trump to leave the race; and Tim Scott faced accusations that he could “spoil” the race for Nikki Haley, another politician from his home state of South Carolina.
The Democratic primaries were even less competitive because President Joe Biden initially ran for re-election, only to drop out after all the primaries were concluded. Of his challengers, Robert F. Kennedy Jr., withdrew before the primaries to run as an independent (and later dropped out for fear of playing spoiler in the general election). Rep. Dean Phillips and businessman Jason Palmer withdrew during the primaries. Just one challenger – Marianne Williamson – stayed in the race until the end. The party’s ultimate nominee, Vice President Kamala Harris, was not a candidate in any state’s primary.
Over 300,000 Republicans cast “zombie votes”
Given the volatility of candidate fields, “zombie votes” are a growing problem in presidential primaries. Zombie votes occur when a voter selects a candidate whose name still appears on the ballot even though they have dropped out of the race.
In this year’s Republican primaries, over 300,000 voters cast zombie votes for candidates who had already dropped out of the race. In 2016, roughly 700,000 Republicans cast zombie votes. In 2020, over 3 million Democrats did the same.
Zombie votes are especially common among early and mail-in voters, who often fill out ballots a week or more ahead of Election Day. However, giving voters a more convenient experience with early voting isn’t the problem; our “choose-one” voting method is to blame.
States with the most “zombie votes” in 2024 Republican presidential primaries
| State | # of zombie votes | % of all votes cast |
| California | 73,953 | 3% |
| Texas | 61,371 | 3% |
| Colorado | 28,462 | 3% |
| Michigan | 23,029 | 2% |
| North Carolina | 22,967 | 2% |
| Virginia | 14,234 | 2% |
| Tennessee | 12,794 | 2% |
| Arkansas | 12,339 | 5% |
| Massachusetts | 12,082 | 2% |
Whether it was limited choice or “zombie votes,” the end result of this broken primary cycle was that large majorities of voters were unsatisfied with both presumptive nominees. In July, a New York Times/Siena poll found that 63% of voters believed President Biden would be a risky choice for the country, and 56% believed former President Trump would be a risky choice. A Pew poll that month found 53% of voters believed both candidates should be replaced – Biden ultimately stepped aside – and a third of each candidate’s supporters said their own candidate was “embarrassing.”
Ranked choice voting improves presidential primaries
Ranked choice voting is a better way to vote in presidential primaries. It gives voters the option to rank candidates in order of preference. If a voter’s first-choice candidate drops out, their ballot counts for a backup choice.
RCV ensures that every vote is counted, and there are no more zombie votes. It also takes away pressure on candidates to drop out by solving the “spoiler problem” – voters who pick a less popular candidate as their first choice can still weigh in on the choice between finalists, instead of accidentally helping their least-favorite candidate.
In 2024, the Republican Party in the U.S. Virgin Islands became the first Republican state party to use RCV in a presidential primary. Maine became the first state to use RCV in its government-run presidential primary, representing how the Pine Tree State has gradually expanded its use of this better voting method – from city elections in its largest city of Portland, to state and congressional elections, to presidential general elections and now presidential primaries.
U. S. Virgin Islanders were able to rank the six candidates on the ballot. About 10% cast their first choice for a withdrawn candidate. But unlike in other states, the vast majority were able to have their voices count in the outcome because of ranked choice voting.
Democrats in Alaska, Hawaii, and Wyoming initially planned to use RCV in 2024 as well, but switched plans because not enough candidates would have appeared on the ballot for RCV to have an impact. Additionally, North Carolina Democrats, Oregon Democrats, and Democrats Abroad used RCV as part of their presidential primaries. Each used RCV to choose their party delegates to the national convention. Voters still used choose-one voting to cast a vote for the party’s presidential nominee.
These uses of ranked choice voting built on successful implementations in several 2020 presidential primaries. That year, the Democratic state parties in Alaska, Hawaii, Kansas, and Wyoming used RCV in their presidential primaries and had no zombie votes. In addition, Nevada Democrats used RCV for early voters, virtually eliminating zombie votes there. That’s a huge contrast with states like Arizona and Washington, where over 20% of all voters cast zombie votes.
The road ahead for ranked choice voting in presidential primaries
With four years until the next presidential primary cycle, now is the perfect time for states to consider adopting RCV for their own primaries. With RCV, parties can go into general elections stronger, more unified, and more likely to win.
Media outlets, candidates, and parties can use RCV polls to better understand the crowded field and also help identify strong presidential and vice-presidential nominees. In the event of a contested convention, parties could also use RCV to pick a candidate with broad party support.
Here are three ways ranked choice voting can be incorporated to improve presidential nominations.
RCV in presidential primaries
In addition to ending “zombie votes” and addressing concern about spoilers, ranked choice voting in presidential primaries would increase civility among candidates and identify the strongest nominee. Candidates would need to build a consensus, majority coalition – including both deep support (as many voters’ 1st-choice candidate) and broad support (as some voters’ 2nd or 3rd choice).
Ranking candidates would allow voters to fully express their preferences in a large field. Most importantly, the nominee would emerge with majority support. More voters would feel “bought in” as a result of affirmatively supporting the nominee, whether as their 1st choice or a backup choice.
RCV in public opinion polling
Compared to choose-one polling, ranked choice polling provides far more information on voter preferences. This includes voters’ backup choices, head-to-head matchups of all candidates, and which candidates are strong “consensus” picks (ranked in voters’ top 3 or top 5 choices).
FairVote has commissioned ranked choice voting polls over several cycles that capture the breadth and depth of voter support for candidates. Those include one from July 2024 that showed both deep and broad support for Kamala Harris as a potential replacement presidential candidate, one from September 2023 that showed Donald Trump as a clear frontrunner but also a controversial candidate within the GOP, and one from August 2020 that found Harris to be a strong consensus running mate for Joe Biden.
*This ranked choice tabulation eliminates “Someone else” and “Undecided” first, even though they had a higher first-round vote total than some named candidates.
RCV in contested conventions
Finally, if no candidate secures a majority of delegates through the presidential primaries, ranked choice voting can be used on the convention floor to help a candidate achieve a majority.
Specifically, delegates could hold two rounds of choose-one voting. If no majority winner emerged after two rounds, delegates would each submit a ranked choice ballot, and the nominee would be the winner of that ranked choice voting election. This allows some negotiation and consolidation around candidates in the first few rounds, but also prevents the appearance of backroom dealing and a voting process that could last days.
Depending on the outcome of this November election, there could be dozens of candidates running for both the Democratic and Republican presidential nominations in 2028. Though it may seem early, now is the time to think about an improved process that gives greater say to voters, solves the problems of limited choice and zombie votes, and identifies the strongest candidates in a crowded field.
For more information, please see:
Where ranked choice voting was used in the 2024 presidential primaries
