Poll: Kamala Harris leads ranked choice poll if Biden withdraws, Biden remains strongest Democrat against Trump
July 15, 2024 – A new SurveyUSA/FairVote ranked choice poll of 2,050 likely voters in six swing states finds that Kamala Harris is the strong favorite among Democrats and independents to replace Joe Biden should he withdraw from the race. Polling was conducted on July 8-10.
Among all likely voters, Biden performs the strongest against Donald Trump of all potential nominees (44%-44%). Harris performs the best of all non-Biden options (Trump 46%-Harris 42%).
Among likely Democratic and independent voters, toplines and key findings of the full poll include:
- Harris has both deep and broad support. She is the first choice of 37% of likely Democratic and independent voters; she continues to consolidate support in a ranked choice voting tabulation. Harris ultimately wins with 68% and her strongest opponent, Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, receives 32%.
- Harris is a strong consensus candidate, ranked in the top 3 choices by 56% of voters. Other candidates commonly ranked in voters’ top three choices include Whitmer (31%) and Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg (29%).
- Harris is the most popular first-choice candidate for both women and men, across every racial group, and across every age group.
- In a ranked choice poll for a Harris running mate, Buttigieg bests Whitmer 52-48%, within the poll’s credibility interval. Buttigieg also has the most first-choice support.
*This ranked choice tabulation eliminates “Someone else” and “Undecided” first, even though they had a higher first-round vote total than some named candidates.
The poll allowed respondents to rank up to seven choices for a potential Democratic presidential nominee and vice-presidential nominee. Ranked choice polling provides more information on voter preferences, including voters’ backup choices, head-to-head matchups of all candidates, and which candidates are strong “consensus” picks (ranked in voters’ top 3 or top 5 choices).
“Kamala Harris has deep and broad support among Democratic and independent voters, and appears to be the most popular choice if the party pursues a new presidential ticket,” said Deb Otis, Director of Research and Policy of FairVote. “In this poll, 56% of likely Democratic and independent voters rank Harris among their top three potential nominees should President Biden step aside. Ranked choice polling gives us more and better information on voters’ preferences, and is well-suited to identify a consensus candidate who might unite a crowded and potentially fractious field.”
“Ranked choice voting is a valuable tool for political parties to achieve consensus behind their nominees, from local primaries to the presidency. The transparency it provides can reinforce voter trust, unite a party heading into the general election, and galvanize support for its nominee. Democratic and Republican parties alike benefit from using ranked choice voting to identify competitive candidates, whether it’s in polling, primary elections, or even open conventions,” said Meredith Sumpter, President and CEO of FairVote.
FairVote is a nonpartisan election reform organization with no opinion on whether President Biden or other candidates should continue in the presidential race. This is a purely informational poll of interest given continued discussion of this topic among Democratic Party leaders and the news media.
The poll included likely voters in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Additional analysis is available here, and the full poll with crosstabs is available here.
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FairVote is a nonpartisan organization seeking better elections for all. We research and advance voting reforms that make democracy more functional and representative for every American.
