Results and analysis from Maine’s 2nd district
Maine voters used ranked choice voting (RCV) to choose their Representative for the 2nd Congressional District on November 8th. Maine is now in its third cycle of RCV elections since it implemented RCV in 2018. Ranked choice elections in Maine are run smoothly and the Secretary of State’s office conducted the ballot processing and RCV tabulation via a livestream to make the process transparent.
Jared Golden, the Democratic incumbent, won with 53% in the final round. This result was anticipated with a high level of accuracy by a pre-election poll conducted by SurveyUSA for FairVote and the Bangor Daily News, underscoring the reliability of voter preferences within an RCV election.
Golden’s path to victory
Golden began with a four-point lead among first choices and grew his lead to six points in the “instant runoff” by earning more 2nd-choice support than his opponent, former Representative Bruce Poliquin. When independent candidate Tiffany Bond was eliminated, 55% of Bond voters ranked Golden as their 2nd choice, compared to 22% who ranked Poliquin. 23% did not rank a second choice on their ballots.
Golden’s RCV victory demonstrates both a strong depth and breadth of support – he led among voters’ first choices, and then was able to appeal to Bond voters outside his base. In other words, Golden’s winning coalition includes voters who ranked him first and voters who ranked him second. Golden made notable efforts to appeal to Bond voters, including stating that he would not participate in debates unless Bond was also included. In recent weeks, Poliquin also acknowledged that RCV was “really easy.”
Compare these results to 2018, when these same three candidates competed for this seat along with a fourth challenger:
| Candidate | Round 1 | Round 2 |
|---|---|---|
| Jared Golden (D) | 45.6% | 50.6% |
| Bruce Poliquin (R) | 46.3% | 49.4% |
| Tiffany Bond | 5.7% | — |
| William Hoar | 2.4% | — |
This year Golden earned more 1st-choice support from Maine voters overall, and more 2nd-choice support from Bond voters, than he did in 2018. FairVote estimates that incumbents typically have an advantage of 1.4 percentage points. Even when accounting for Golden’s incumbent advantage, this is an improvement over his 2018 performance.
RCV polling proves accurate
A FairVote / SurveyUSA poll accurately forecasted this result in the days leading up to Election Day. Our poll predicted both the first-round and final-round totals within 1.5 percentage points, and provided an interactive tool for users to explore different ballot-transfer scenarios, almost all of which led to a victory for Golden.
RCV polling is reliable and accurate and has been used around the country, including in Maine, Alaska, and New York City. Pollsters can follow FairVote’s RCV polling best practices to ensure that they are capturing voters’ ranked preferences properly.
Good governance and ranked choice voting
When Golden was first elected in 2018, just like this year, he earned less than 50% of voters’ 1st choices. That means he needed some second-choices in order to win.
During his time in office, Golden’s policy choices have reflected his accountability to this broad coalition. Golden is scored as one of the most centrist members of the House of Representatives. In turn, that centrism and independence from his party (in one of the few competitive House districts across the country) appears to have contributed to his stronger performance in the 2022 election, where an even larger coalition is now sending him back to Washington.
This suggests a positive feedback loop between strong wins delivered by ranked choice voting and reflective governance. (In ME-02, governing as a centrist can be considered reflective representation because it is a swing district; this may not be true in districts that more heavily favor a single party.) It is a trend we’ll continue to watch as more states, like Alaska and perhaps Nevada, elect their U.S. Senators and Representatives using ranked choice voting.
Ranked choice voting’s history in Maine
Maine voters first approved RCV statewide in a ballot measure in 2016 that was designed to establish RCV for all primary and general elections for state and congressional offices. A 2017 advisory opinion of the state supreme court suggested that RCV for general elections for Governor and the state legislature violated a “plurality election” clause. (In 2022, the Alaska State Supreme Court offered a unanimous pro-RCV interpretation of a similar plurality clause.) After another vote of the people in June 2018, RCV was established for all state and congressional primary elections and general elections for Congress. In 2019, the state legislature expanded RCV to presidential elections, starting with the 2020 general election and continuing in 2024 for both primary and general elections for president.
At the local level, Maine’s largest city of Portland has used RCV for mayor since 2011. In 2020, more than 80% of Portland voters voted to expand RCV to all city elections, and more than 60% of voters in Westbrook voted to establish RCV there. A 2022 law extends the power to all municipalities in Maine to use RCV if they choose.
Looking forward, reform organizations like Democracy Maine support a state constitutional amendment to use RCV for all general elections and opportunities for cities to use RCV.
