New poll shows impact of ranked choice voting in Maine
A new poll from SurveyUSA provides insight into upcoming high profile races in Maine, as well as voters’ sentiments about ranked choice voting (RCV). For additional coverage, see this piece from Bangor Daily News.
Golden maintains a lead in the second congressional district
The race for Maine’s second congressional district is a near rematch of the 2018 race, which was Maine’s first experience with ranked choice voting. Incumbent Jared Golden (D) is challenged by former Representative Bruce Poliquin (R) and independent Tiffany Bond. The poll reveals that Golden leads in first choice support (43% to Poliquin’s 40%). 8% plan to vote for Bond, and 9% are undecided. When Bond is eliminated and her supporters’ votes count for their next choice (and undecided respondents are eliminated), Golden holds his lead on Poliquin, 54% to 46%. The credible interval is 5.1 points. The table below excludes undecided voters.
| Candidate | Round 1 vote share | Round 2 vote share |
|---|---|---|
| Jared Golden (D) | 47% | 54% |
| Bruce Poliquin (R) | 43% | 46% |
| Tiffany Bond (I) | 9% |
In 2018, then-Representative Poliquin had the most first choice preferences, but not enough to win a majority. The two independent candidates were then eliminated, and many of their votes were transferred to Golden, who secured a majority of active votes in the second round.
Predict your own outcome in CD-2
Use the interactive graph below to test how different second choice patterns could impact the race.
Voters continue to embrace ranked choice voting
82% of respondents said ranking was either easy or very easy. Of respondents who planned to only vote for a first choice, the majority said they either only liked one candidate or believed their first choice candidate would advance to the final round, making a backup choice unnecessary. The poll confirms that when a voter chooses to rank only one candidate, they are most likely making an active choice to ensure their ballot is indicative of their actual preferences.
At the same time, Republican voters may be more likely to rank a second choice than they were the last time around. In 2018, just short of a third of GOP voters ranked an alternate preference. This poll shows 40% of Republican respondents ranking a second choice, perhaps because Poliquin has been more willing to embrace RCV this year.
Governor Janet Mills holds an edge over LePage; RCV could boost support for Independent Sam Hunkler
The poll also shows Governor Janet Mills (D) leading former Governor Paul LePage (R), 49% to 43%. Another 4% support Sam Hunkler (i), while 5% are undecided. LePage has a history of winning the governorship with a small plurality (less than 50%) of votes, which in part prompted Maine’s move to ranked choice voting for many of its elections. Ironically, the gubernatorial race does not use RCV.
Nonetheless, the poll reveals what the governor’s race would have looked like under RCV. Independent Hunkler polls more than twice what he does under the pick-one rules (9%), indicating that voters are more willing to express their honest preferences when presented with a ranked ballot, likely because they need not worry about “spoiling” the race.
Preview of 2024 Republican Presidential Primary
The poll also looks to the future and shows how Maine might vote in the 2024 presidential primaries when presented with potential candidates on a ranked ballot. Republican voters had the option to rank Donald Trump, Ron DeSantis, Mike Pence, Nikki Haley, Ted Cruz, and Glenn Younkin.
When excluding undecided voters, Trump wins with 52% support in the first round from poll respondents, so ranked choice voting is not needed to determine the winner.
| Candidate | % of First Choices |
|---|---|
| Donald Trump | 52% |
| Ron DeSantis | 29% |
| Mike Pence | 10% |
| Nikki Haley | 5% |
| Ted Cruz | 3% |
| Glenn Youngkin | 1% |
Preview of 2024 Democratic Presidential Primary
Democratic voters had the choices of Pete Buttigieg, Kamala Harris, Bernie Sanders, Amy Klobuchar, Jamie Raskin, and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. Harris leads with 24% of first-choice preferences, but with no majority winner in the first round, ranked choice voting will determine the winner. With the help of transfer preferences, Buttigieg wins with a majority in the fifth round. In a plurality race, Buttigieg might lose early on, even though RCV proves he has deep support among Maine Democrats.
Use the interactive RCV tool below to eliminate candidates one-at-a-time and see how the ballots transfer! (If you can’t see the interactive widget below, try turning off the ad blocker in your browser.)
Poll methodology
SurveyUSA polled 1,475 adults across Maine between 10/28/22 and 11/2/22, most of whom were registered and likely to vote. Interviewees were chosen randomly, and the pool was weighted to targets for gender, age, home ownership, and congressional district. Only voters living in the second congressional district were asked questions about the race for ME-2. These voters were oversampled to provide greater accuracy to the questions about the ME-2 race, then re-weighted to the correct percentage of the state’s voters.