August 20, 2024 – Today, Alaska is holding nonpartisan primaries for the state’s sole congressional seat and most of the seats in the state legislature. This will be the third time voters have experienced the “Top Four” nonpartisan open Alaska primary and ranked choice voting general election since voters approved the system in 2020. 

FairVote has analyzed all of Alaska’s ranked choice voting elections (as have Unite America and the Sightline Institute), and offers the below data for those covering this year’s elections:

Alaska voters like open primaries and ranked choice voting

In a 2022 poll, 85% said RCV was simple and 62% said they supported the state’s new election system. 

According to a 2023 analysis, 52% of Alaskans said their vote “mattered more” than in previous years. As the Sightline Institute noted, all statewide primaries were competitive; and more candidates overall, independent candidates, and women candidates ran for office. 

Voters get more and better choices, elections are more competitive, and parties can have multiple candidates on the ballot without “splitting” the vote 

Much of the national press attention on Alaska’s at-large congressional race has focused on the concern that multiple Republicans could make it to the November ballot and “split the vote” among them (and a related effort by a Democratic Super PAC to promote certain Republican candidates). However, this is exactly what RCV is designed to prevent, and we saw it do so multiple times in Alaska in 2022. Notably, Alaska’s independent-minded voters also elected a conservative Republican governor, moderate Republican senator, and moderate Democratic congressperson in 2022. 

If voters choose to rank multiple Republicans (or Democrats) on their ballot, their votes will simply consolidate behind the strongest candidate.  

• In November 2022, there were three “come-from-behind” victories in Alaska State House races (Districts 11, 15, and 18) – meaning that the candidate who received the most first-choice support did not win. Two were won by Republicans and one was won by a Democrat. In all three cases, we saw two candidates from the same party split the vote; when the lower performer was eliminated, those second choices largely went to the same-party candidate and they won.(See this story in Alaska Public Media: “Republicans hold Alaska House after benefiting from ranked choice voting”)
• In November 2022, 82% of Alaska voters stayed within party lines for their top 2 choices (i.e. they ranked Republicans first and second, or Democrats first and second). 18% crossed party lines. 
• Strong candidates and campaigns impact how voters rank their ballots; voters tend to follow their cues. We saw evidence of this in Alaska in 2022. Sarah Palin changed her strategy between the August 2022 special election and November 2022 general election; both she and Nick Begich encouraged Republican voters to rank multiple Republican candidates (using the catchphrase “rank the red”). In November 2022, 67% of Begich voters ranked Palin as their next choice, compared to 50% who ranked her second in August. 

Given all this info, the concern about multiple Republicans splitting the vote in November (and the related Democratic Super PAC attempt to capitalize on that) is curious; RCV is designed to prevent that, and did so multiple times in Alaska in 2022. Notably, Palin’s loss in August 2022 is likely attributable to her being a particularly poor candidate (with a 60% disapproval rating in the state) rather than RCV.

Ultimately, RCV allows a party to have multiple candidates on the ballot without losing because of vote-splitting; that’s exactly what we saw in those Alaska House races in 2022. This is a tool that gives voters more choice and power, and can also elevate a wider range of quality candidates from within a party – Alaska voters clearly get it and have embraced it, and political parties could follow suit. 

Additional Resources: 

• Sightline Institute: Nonpartisan open primaries and ranked choice voting in Alaska
• Unite America: Alaska’s election model
• Alaska Division of Elections: Election Information
• Alaskans for Better Elections: Ranked choice voting explainer video
• State Rep. Jesse Sumner: Open primary and ranked choice voting is good for conservatives, Wasilla, and Alaska
• FairVote:
  • Video: Alaska leaders speak on ranked choice voting
  • Analysis from Alaska’s RCV elections in November 2022
  • Alaska’s RCV winners earn strong mandates and reflect the state’s political diversity
  • Where is ranked choice voting used?
  • Case study: Voters followed Bruce Poliquin’s suggestion for how to rank their ballots

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FairVote is a nonpartisan organization seeking better elections for all. We research and advance voting reforms that make democracy more functional and representative for every American.