Case study: Voters followed Bruce Poliquin's suggestion for how to rank their ballots

Deb Otis | 

In ranked choice voting (RCV) elections, voters have the option to rank candidates in order of preference. Our previous research indicates that voters often follow cues from candidates or campaigns about how to rank their ballot. However, our analysis was missing a clear apples-to-apples comparison that isolates other factors to make a more confident projection about the degree to which voters base their ranking decisions on campaign messaging. 

Former Congressman Bruce Poliquin (R-ME) gave us that apples-to-apples comparison. Our new analysis finds that nearly 1 in 4 Poliquin supporters responded directly to his 2022 suggestion that voters rank him multiple times on their ballot – even though that instruction had no impact on how their votes would be counted.   

In the 2018 and 2022 election cycles, Poliquin competed against the same opponents and earned roughly the same first-choice vote share in RCV elections. But he gave slightly different instructions to his voters. This case study examines how voter behavior changed in response to cues from the Poliquin campaign.

When Maine first used RCV in 2018, Poliquin ran for re-election to Congress in Maine’s 2nd District, competing against a Democrat and two independent candidates. Poliquin earned 46% of first choices. An examination of cast vote records released by the Maine Secretary of State reveals that 30% of people voted for Poliquin and no other candidates, but there were differences in voter behavior within that group. 

  • 28% of voters voted for Poliquin as their first choice and did not use any other rankings.
  • 2% of voters ranked Poliquin multiple times (i.e. as both their 1st-choice and 2nd-choice candidate), but did not rank any other candidates.

In 2022, Poliquin competed against the same Democrat and one of the same independent candidates, but this time he adjusted his messaging. He reportedly sent an email that “encouraged people to only vote for the same candidate in each round rather than ranking candidates by preference.” In a radio appearance during the same campaign cycle, he doubled down, saying “don’t rank or rank me across your ballot…” We could not find any evidence of him making similar pleas to voters during the 2018 campaign. 

In the 2022 race, Poliquin earned nearly the same first-choice vote share (47%) and roughly the same number of voters voted for Poliquin and no other candidates (29%). But this time, voter behavior within the only-Poliquin voters differed. 

  • 16% of voters voted for Poliquin as their first choice and did not use any other rankings.
  • 13% of voters ranked Poliquin multiple times but did not rank any other candidates.

When Poliquin changed his messaging and suggested voters could rank him multiple times on their ballot, there was an 11-point increase in voters who did exactly that. Just including Poliquin supporters – those who ranked him first on their ballot – the increase was 23 points, nearly one of every four. 

The Poliquin data offers the clearest evidence of how voters follow candidate cues because of his unusual suggestion, and because it offers an apples-to-apples comparison of November electorates. Poliquin’s suggestion was not a winning one (likely why it’s so unusual); while it did not hurt him, it did not help him earn more votes, empower voters who ranked him Number 1, or attract second-choice support from voters ranking other candidates first.

However, we saw a similar and more strategic example of changed candidate behavior impacting voter behavior in the 2022 Alaska congressional contests. A largely similar field was on the ballot for both an August special and November general election. Before the August election, Republican candidates Sarah Palin and Nick Begich attacked each other. Palin discouraged voters from ranking, and did not rank Begich on her ballot. 

Palin changed her strategy between the August special and November general; both she and Nick Begich encouraged Republican voters to rank both Republican candidates – using the catchphrase “rank the red” – ahead of November. In November, 67% of Begich voters ranked Palin as their next choice, compared to just 50% who ranked her second in August – a 17-point increase (relatively close to the 23-point increase in the Poliquin example). 

There are at least two implications of the Poliquin and Begich/Palin examples for candidates and their campaigns: 

  • First, this data adds to a body of evidence showing that candidates can make a meaningful impact by encouraging voters to rank them, even as a second or third choice. This could include direct appeals to voters that they know are ranking their opponents first, along the lines of: “Even if I’m not your favorite, rank me as your second choice.” 
  • Second, by encouraging voters to fully rank their ballots, candidates can increase their supporters’ likelihood of influencing the outcome – even if they themselves do not win. One coalition-building strategy might be a “second-choice endorsement” or “cross-endorsement” – encouraging voters to rank them first, and rank a candidate with a similar ideology second. 

This should be welcome news to candidates and campaigns. When you send messages about how your voters should rank their ballots, a sizable portion of them will listen and adjust their behavior!

Image of Waterville, Maine adapted from the original by Billy Hathorn under a Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 3.0 Unported license.