New Ranked Choice Poll in Maine: Harris Leads Statewide and in 1st District, Trump leads in 2nd District

| November 01, 2024 | Will Mantell | [email protected]

Poll shows Sen. Angus King, Rep. Chellie Pingree, and Rep. Jared Golden favored for re-election

Maine uses ranked choice voting for president, U.S. Senate, and U.S. House. 82% of Maine voters say ranked choice voting is easy

November 1, 2024 – In a new SurveyUSA/FairVote ranked choice poll in partnership with the Bangor Daily News of 1,079 likely Maine voters, Vice President Kamala Harris leads the presidential race statewide (51%-43%) and in the 1st congressional district (58%-37%), while former President Donald Trump leads in the state’s 2nd district (49%-44%). Sen. Angus King (54%-28%) and Reps. Chellie Pingree (60%-28%) and Jared Golden (53%-41%) also lead their races. Polling was conducted on October 24-29.

Maine voters will use ranked choice voting for president, U.S. Senate, and the U.S. House this year. 82% of respondents say ranked choice voting (RCV) is “easy” or “very easy.” As Maine voters use RCV for their fourth statewide election, 57% support ranking candidates, compared to 35% opposed.

In the poll, no races go to an RCV tabulation – though several are close with the leading candidate winning just over 50% of voters’ first choices. If any race goes to RCV tabulation, FairVote will release additional analysis using today’s poll data to help election analysts accurately predict the outcome, or range of likely outcomes..

“High-quality ranked choice polling provides additional data about voter preferences, including whether third-party voters would vote for the Democrat or Republican if their favorite candidate weren’t in the race. It can also be used to accurately predict the outcome if contests go to RCV tabulation,” said Deb Otis, Director of Research and Policy at FairVote, a nonpartisan organization seeking better elections. “This poll shows ranked choice voting working in Maine – voters say it’s easy and that they like it. In other states, voters worry about backing a potential presidential ‘spoiler’; in Maine, voters can rank honestly and know their vote will simply count for their second choice if their first choice can’t win.

Polling results for presidential and congressional races

Presidential race:

In the presidential race, Vice President Kamala Harris leads former President Donald Trump 51%-43% statewide and 58%-37% in the 1st congressional district.

Trump leads Harris 49%-44% in Maine’s 2nd district; when undecided voters are removed, Trump leads 51%-46%. (This is why this race does not go to RCV tabulation; undecided voters cannot express a 2nd or 3rd choice.)

Today’s poll provides additional insight into the preferences of minor-party and independent voters, despite small sample sizes of these voters. Among Jill Stein voters, 55% rank Trump higher than Harris, 29% rank Harris higher, and 17% do not rank either major-party candidate. Among Chase Oliver voters, 44% prefer Trump, 4% prefer Harris, and 51% do not rank either. All Cornel West voters in our sample rank at least one of the finalists: 46% prefer Trump and 54% prefer Harris. Roughly 1% of respondents chose each of Stein, Oliver, and West as their first choice.

U.S. Senate

Independent Sen. Angus King leads Republican Demi Kouzounas in his race for re-election to the U.S. Senate, 54%-28%.

U.S. House of Representatives

Democratic Rep. Chellie Pingree leads State Rep. Ronald Russell 60%-28% in the 1st district.

Democratic Rep. Jared Golden leads State Rep. Austin Theriault, 53%-41%, in a two-candidate race to represent Maine’s tossup 2nd congressional district.

Ranked choice voting data in today’s poll

Voters say RCV is easy and they like it

82% of Maine voters find it easy or very easy to rank their choices, an increase since 2018 and consistent with 2022.
As Maine voters use RCV for their fourth statewide election, 57% support ranking candidates compared to 35% opposed.

Voters rank when it matters

RCV offers a solution to the presidential “spoiler” problem faced by voters in 48 states, and currently occurring with Jill Stein, Cornel West, and others. With RCV, Maine voters can rank a third-party candidate first; if that candidate does poorly, their vote simply counts for their next choice – instead of helping their least-favorite candidate win.

In both the presidential and congressional races, there is extensive evidence of voters ranking when it matters and ranking thoughtfully, affirming previous research:

In the presidential race, 100% of Cornel West voters, 88% of Jill Stein voters, and 49% of Chase Oliver voters ranked multiple candidates in the poll. Only 39% of Harris voters and 30% of Trump voters did so. As expected, third-party voters are using the opportunity RCV provides to express their preference if their first choice doesn’t have a chance to win.
In the U.S. Senate race, Democrat David Costello is the most common second choice for Angus King voters, ranked second on 58% of King ballots with a backup choice. King is also the most common backup choice for Costello voters. This is logical given that King caucuses with the Democratic Party in the Senate.
In the 1st District congressional race, 86% of voters for independent Ethan Alcorn identified a second-choice candidate, compared to 36% of voters for the Democrat and Republican.

About the poll

SurveyUSA polled 1,079 likely voters across Maine between October 24 and October 29. This research was through a mix of home telephone and online panel on their smartphone, laptop or tablet. The combined pool was weighted to targets for gender, age, education, home ownership, and 2020 Presidential vote. The credibility interval for voters’ first choices is 3.6 points for the statewide races, and is higher for backup choices and within the individual congressional districts. A full list of survey responses and cross-tabs can be found via SurveyUSA.

Appendix: Hypothetical RCV tally for CD-2

According to the poll, the presidential race in the 2nd Congressional District is the contest most likely to need an RCV count to determine a majority winner. Trump currently leads Harris 49%-44%, with 4% undecided and 3% choosing another candidate. Below, we simulate what the RCV tally might look like if Trump remains below 50% of first choices.

The only realistic scenario for Trump to fall below 50% is if the undecided voters break overwhelmingly toward Harris, so we use that assumption below – with the understanding that this assumption is unlikely, and the main goal being to show how an RCV tally would work. After counting first choices in Round 1, we simulate all undecided voters choosing Harris.

RCV tally in ME-2

In round 2, the undecided voters bring Harris almost even with Trump. However, Trump expands his lead in every remaining round of counting as West, Oliver, and Stein are eliminated. More 2nd District voters ranking each of West, Oliver, and Stein first in the poll prefer Trump to Harris as a backup choice. (Statewide, West voters preferred Harris as a backup choice. In the 2nd District, they prefer Trump.)

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FairVote is a nonpartisan organization seeking better elections for all. We research and advance voting reforms that make democracy more functional and representative for every American.