Kamala Harris, Gavin Newsom neck-and-neck in new ranked choice voting presidential poll
63% of likely Democratic primary voters support using ranked choice voting in 2028 presidential primary, with just 17% opposed
May 20, 2026 – A new Lake Research Partners poll of 2028 Democratic primary voters shows a competitive field, with Kamala Harris and Gavin Newsom leading a ranked choice simulation. Polling was conducted among 800 likely Democratic primary voters nationwide from May 6-11, and included 13 Democrats commonly identified as potential 2028 presidential candidates.
The poll allowed respondents to rank up to five choices for a potential 2028 Democratic presidential nominee.
Toplines and key findings of the poll include:
- In the ranked choice simulation, Harris leads Newsom 52-48%, within the poll’s margin of error. Excluding undecided respondents, 26% rank Harris first and 17% rank Newsom first. Both consolidate support in the ranked choice voting rounds.
- Voters overwhelmingly support ranked choice voting for presidential primaries, and say it’s easy. 63% of respondents support using ranked choice voting for presidential primaries, which increases to 70% after they had the opportunity to rank potential presidential candidates. 84% say ranking candidates is easy.
- The poll shows how ranked choice voting allows votes to count more meaningfully in a crowded presidential field. Only 43% of respondents rank Harris or Newsom first. However, a total of 80% rank either Harris and/or Newsom somewhere in their top five choices – and therefore have their “vote” count in the final round of the RCV simulation. This shows how, with RCV, voters are able to support a lower-polling candidate and still have a voice in the outcome.
- Respondents who rank Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez first are more likely to rank Kamala Harris as a backup choice. Respondents who rank Pete Buttigieg, Mark Kelly, Josh Shapiro, Cory Booker, J.B. Pritzker, and Gretchen Whitmer first are more likely to rank Newsom as a backup choice.
“The poll shows that ranked choice voting is popular among Democratic voters, and a perfect tool for a crowded 2028 primary. It can bring unity in a divided field. It fosters competition and choice. It’s a more inclusive system, giving more voters a voice in who the party nominates. Most importantly, voters like ranked choice voting and find it easy,” said Celinda Lake, President of Lake Research Partners.
Ranked choice polling provides more information on voter preferences, including voters’ backup choices, head-to-head matchups of all candidates, and which candidates are common “consensus” choices (widely ranked on voters’ ballots).
Additional highlights include:
- The poll shows how ranked choice voting can unify voters. Even if their favorite candidate doesn’t win, more voters affirmatively support the eventual nominee by ranking them on their ballots. This includes voters supporting different frontrunners.
- 57% of respondents rank Harris
- 56% of respondents rank Newsom
- 54% of Newsom supporters also rank Harris. 44% of Harris supporters also rank Newsom.
- Ranked choice voting is popular across all racial demographics.
- 71% of Latino respondents say they support RCV for the 2028 presidential primary, rising to 81% after they ranked candidates.
- 63% of Black respondents say they support RCV for the 2028 presidential primary, rising to 74% after they rank potential candidates.
- 61% of White respondents say they support RCV for the 2028 presidential primary, rising to 66% after they rank potential candidates.
- Poll respondents take advantage of the ability to rank.
- 89% rank at least two candidates.
- 69% rank five candidates, the maximum allowed in the poll.
- Seven contenders are ranked in the top five by at least one-third of voters. 55% or more rank Harris, Newsom, or Pete Buttigieg. 33% or more rank Mark Kelly, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Josh Shapiro, or Cory Booker.
- Gavin Newsom and Pete Buttigieg appear to share a base of voters, with each being the most commonly ranked 2nd or 3rd choice for respondents who supported the other. Kamala Harris supporters are more split on their 2nd and 3rd choices – dividing between Newsom, Buttigieg, and Ocasio-Cortez.
FairVote is a nonpartisan election reform organization with no opinion on potential candidates for office. This is an informational poll given interest in the 2028 presidential race.
Additional analysis is available below, and the Lake Research Partners poll memo is available here.
Poll Methodology
Lake Research Partners designed and administered this survey of 800 Democratic primary voters nationwide, via online panel. The survey was conducted May 6-11, 2026. The margin of error for the full sample is +/-3.5%.
Additional findings
Democratic primary voters overwhelmingly support ranked choice voting
63% of all respondents say they support using ranked choice voting for the 2028 presidential primary. Only 16% oppose it, with 21% not sure.
Younger voters and voters of color report the highest level of support for ranked choice voting.
Voters’ backup choices reveal patterns
Examining voters’ backup choices helps us understand which candidate voters might prefer if their favorite drops out of the race, or chooses not to run. As noted above, voters who rank Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez first are more likely to prefer Kamala Harris or Pete Buttigieg as a backup choice; voters supporting another candidate are more likely to prefer Gavin Newsom.
There is also strong overlap between voters who rank Gavin Newsom and Pete Buttigieg.
Several candidates are widely ranked, even if not as voters’ first choice
In addition to being popular first choices, Harris, Newsom, and Buttigieg are also common backup choices; they are each ranked as a first, second, or third choice by at least 42% of voters.
Harris, Newsom, and Buttigieg are also each ranked in the top five choices by at least 55% of voters. Kelly, Ocasio-Cortez, Booker, and Shapiro are each ranked in the top five choices by at least one-third of voters.
Head-to-head matchups between candidates
Below are the simulated head-to-head matchups between each of the five highest-polling candidates. Ranked choice polling is unique in allowing us to simulate these matchups.
How to read this chart: Read across rows. For example, read the top row as “Kamala Harris is ranked higher than Gavin Newsom on 52% of ballots; higher than Pete Buttigieg on 52% of ballots; higher than Mark Kelly on 63% of ballots” and so on.
