New Poll Shows 82% of Maine CD-2 Voters Find Ranked Choice Voting Easy
Poll shows Golden leads Poliquin in ranked choice race for Maine’s 2nd congressional district, Mills leads LePage in Maine governor’s race
November 4, 2022 – A new SurveyUSA poll commissioned by FairVote in partnership with the Bangor Daily News finds that a supermajority (82%) of voters in Maine’s 2nd congressional district find ranked choice voting “easy” or “very easy.” The poll also finds that Democratic Rep. Jared Golden leads Republican Bruce Poliquin in the ranked choice voting (RCV) race for Maine’s 2nd, and Democratic Gov. Janet Mills leads Republican Paul LePage among all Maine voters in the “single-choice” race for Maine governor.
“This poll shows ranked choice voting delivering on its promise in Maine – voters understand how to rank their ballot and use their rankings. Ranked choice voting frees Maine voters to express their true preferences and support their candidate of choice,” said Rob Richie, President and CEO of FairVote, a nonpartisan organization seeking better elections. “Voters, campaigns, and candidates alike are adapting to ranked choice voting, and offering a model for other states, cities, and counties that want better elections.”
RANKED CHOICE VOTING
- 82% of voters in Maine’s 2nd congressional district report that ranking candidates is “easy” or “very easy.” A supermajority of all demographic groups reports that RCV is “easy” or “very easy.”
- Of respondents who planned to only vote for a 1st choice, the majority said they either only liked one candidate or believed their 1st-choice candidate would advance to the final round, making a backup choice unnecessary. Only 1% responded that they “don’t understand how ranking works,” confirming that when a voter chooses to rank only one candidate, they are most likely making an active choice to ensure their ballot is indicative of their actual preferences.
- Voters rank when it matters. Among voters who plan to rank independent Tiffany Bond first in the race for Maine’s 2nd congressional district, 67% plan to rank at least two candidates. This offers evidence of voters ranking when it matters most. Bond is likely to finish in last place in the first round of counting, with her voters’ 2nd-choices likely to be decisive.
- Ranking allows voters to express their true preferences. The poll finds Democratic Gov. Janet Mills leading Republican Paul LePage in the “single-choice” race for Maine governor. Independent Sam Hunkler earns 4% support. The poll also asks how voters would vote in the governor’s race, if allowed to rank candidates. Hunkler’s support more than doubles to 9%, indicating that voters are more willing to express their honest preferences on a ranked ballot, likely because they need not worry about “spoiling” the race.
GOLDEN – POLIQUIN
In a near-rematch of the 2018 race for this seat, Democratic Rep. Jared Golden is challenged by former Republican Rep. Bruce Poliquin and independent Tiffany Bond.
The poll shows that Golden leads in 1st-choice support (43% to Poliquin’s 40%). 8% plan to vote for Bond, and 9% are undecided. If undecided voters are disregarded, Golden has 47% of first-choice votes, Poliquin 43%, Bond 9%. When Bond is eliminated and her supporters’ votes count for their next choice, Golden holds his lead on Poliquin, 54% to 46%. The margin of error is 5.1 points.
Readers can use this interactive tool to test how the 2nd choices of Bond voters could impact the outcome of the race.
MILLS – LEPAGE
The poll also shows Democratic Governor Janet Mills leading former Republican Governor Paul LePage, 49% to 43%. Another 4% support Sam Hunkler (I), while 5% are undecided.
LePage twice won the governorship with a plurality (less than 50%) of votes, which in part prompted Maine’s move to ranked choice voting. Ironically, the gubernatorial race does not use RCV.
METHODOLOGY
Survey USA polled 1,475 adults across Maine between 10/28/22 and 11/2/22, most of whom were registered and likely to vote. Interviewees were chosen randomly, and the pool was weighted to targets for gender, age, home ownership, and congressional district. Only voters living in the second congressional district were asked questions about the race for ME-2. These voters were oversampled to provide greater accuracy to the questions about the ME-2 race, then re-weighted to the correct percentage of the state’s voters.
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FairVote is a nonpartisan organization seeking better elections for all. We research and advance voting reforms that make democracy more functional and representative for every American.
