18 Months from Election Day 2026, 81% of House seats are already decided
2 new reports capture lack of competition in congressional elections & need for election reform
States ranked on competition & voter voice – Minnesota #1, Oklahoma #50
April 28, 2025 – New reports from FairVote capture the complete lack of competition in our congressional elections: 84% of House seats in 2024 were decided by 10+ points or completely uncontested, meaning that just 16% of House seats were even somewhat competitive.
We’re bound to repeat the cycle in 2026 – the outcome for 81% of House elections has effectively been decided, 18 months before election day. Only 9% of seats will be true tossups. Competition has steadily declined since FairVote began tracking this data in 1996.
Explore an interactive webpage on the 2026 elections, or sign up for our newsletter on election reform.
“It makes sense that over 80% of Americans don’t feel like elected officials care what they think. Over 80% of Congress is effectively guaranteed re-election,” said Meredith Sumpter, President and CEO of FairVote, a nonpartisan organization seeking better elections. “Uncompetitive elections lead to unrepresentative outcomes, and to a Congress that is polarized and unproductive instead of one that accomplishes the people’s work. The solution is in election reforms like the Fair Representation Act – which would stop gerrymandering and bring real competition to every district with multi-member districts and ranked choice voting.”
Key findings of the reports include:
2024
- In 2024, 367 of 435 (84%) House seats were decided by 10+ points, with 256 (59%) decided by 20+ points and another 29 (7%) completely uncontested. Only 37 (9%) were decided by fewer than 5 points.
- The average margin of victory in House races was 27 points. Hawaii, Idaho, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Dakota, Utah, Vermont, West Virginia, and Wyoming had no races decided by 20 points or less.
- The entire House was elected by just 36% of voting-age Americans.
- 372 of 383 (97%) House incumbents who made it to the general election were re-elected. Four lost in primaries.
- FairVote tracks the “incumbency advantage” – a measure of how many percentage points incumbents perform above expectation. In 2024, it hit a record low of 1.1 points – further demonstrating that national partisanship is almost all that matters for election outcomes.
2026
- For 2026, election analysts including FairVote can already predict outcomes – before we know the candidates, and based solely on partisanship and incumbency.
- 352 of 435 (81%) seats have already been decided, and are “safe” for one party. We project only 38 (9%) true tossups, with another 9% of seats “leaning” either Democrat or Republican.
State Rankings
We rank every state on the Voter Voice Score, which rewards states with higher turnout, closer elections, and more representative outcomes in House elections. The top and bottom performers in 2024 were:
- #1: Minnesota, #2: Michigan, #3: Colorado, #4: Pennsylvania, #5: Virginia
- #50: Oklahoma, #49: Hawaii, #48: Arkansas, #47: West Virginia, #46: Texas
The path forward
Congress has debated a range of reforms that could address these challenges, including ranked choice voting and redistricting reform. Ranked choice voting can increase competition and deliver more representative outcomes in both primaries and general elections. Long-term, the Fair Representation Act (FRA) – likely to be re-introduced in Congress later this session – can stabilize and strengthen our democracy.
The FRA would implement proportional representation for Congress. It would replace single-winner congressional districts with multi-member districts elected through ranked choice voting. It would stop gerrymandering, make every congressional district competitive, and lower the temperature of our politics – rewarding politicians who represent everyone instead of just their base. With the FRA, most Americans would actually elect a candidate of their choice to the U.S. House.
At the state level, states can improve their democracy as they draw their own congressional maps, set voter eligibility requirements, and consider more representative election methods like ranked choice voting and proportional representation.
Explore the interactive webpage, as well as the full 2024 and 2026 reports online.
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FairVote is a nonpartisan organization seeking better elections for all. We research and advance voting reforms that make democracy more functional and representative for every American.
