In 2024, 84% of U.S. House seats were won by 10 points or more, or were completely uncontested.
81% of seats have already been decided for 2026 – 18 months before Election Day.
Only 8% of seats will be truly competitive in 2026.
Congress is broken. It has been polarized and unproductive for years, and it’s only getting worse. Poll after poll shows Americans believe their elected representatives don’t care about what they think, or that politics is broken.
Why? Uncompetitive elections lead to unrepresentative outcomes. Most U.S. House members have little reason to care what most of their district’s voters think – they are nearly guaranteed to win re-election anyway.
Keep reading to learn more, or dive into our full reports on the 2024 House elections and the upcoming 2026 House elections.
Examples: Tennessee and Maryland
Let’s take one red state and one blue state as examples of how these dynamics impact voters on the ground.
Tennessee: 8 of 9 seats held by republicans
COMPETITION
Average margin of victory: 38 points
Closest race: 17 points
REPRESENTATION
64% Republican vote for Congress
89% of seats held by Republicans
Maryland: 7 of 8 seats held by Democrats
COMPETITION
Average margin of victory: 38 points
Closest race: 6 points (only margin under 10 points)
REPRESENTATION
63% Democratic vote for Congress
88% of seats held by Democrats
How each state compared in 2024
We ranked every state on the Voter Voice Score, a measure of healthy congressional elections. Higher-performing states (shown in green below) have higher turnout, closer elections, and more representative outcomes — but there is room for improvement everywhere. See the rankings here:
Our 2026 projections, 18 months in advance
81% of 2026 elections for the U.S. House of Representatives have effectively been decided – even though campaigns won’t heat up for another year. See whether your district is competitive using the map below:
The number of competitive races has steadily declined since FairVote started tracking this data in 1996.
Congress is broken. How can we fix it?
We can blame gerrymandering, geography, and the limitations of single-member districts for the fact that Congress is broken, but that doesn’t help us escape the cycle.
We have the power to make our elections more competitive – and our government more representative. We can start with ranked choice voting, which would foster more competition and ensure more representative outcomes. A more transformative fix is the Fair Representation Act (FRA), a federal bill that would implement proportional representation for the U.S. House.
Under the FRA, representatives would be elected in multi-member districts using ranked choice voting. Candidates would be elected in proportion to their share of the vote – if two-thirds of votes go to Republicans, they should win about two-thirds of seats. Multiple Democrats and Republicans – and potentially third-party and independent candidates – would compete in every congressional district.
For example, here is how Maryland and Tennessee’s congressional maps might look under the Fair Representation Act:
Tennessee
64% Republican vote for Congress
67% of seats projected for Republicans
Maryland
63% Democratic vote for Congress
57% of seats projected for Democrats
Each of these states would have two multi-member districts. Each district would likely elect both Democrats and Republicans. Rural Democrats and urban Republicans — locked out of congressional representation for decades — would have a voice, and their elected leaders would have a real reason to listen to them.
This is how we make Congress work.
Read the full reports
Monopoly Politics 2026
We project that 81% of House seats will be safe for one party, with another 9% leaning strongly to one party – 18 months before Election Day.
Dubious Democracy 2024
Our analysis of the 2024 U.S. House elections. 84% of districts were decided by 10 points or more, or were uncontested. We also rank the health of each state’s elections.