Learning from Papua New Guinea’s Election
On Tuesday, August 9, James Marape was re-elected as Prime Minister of Papua New Guinea (PNG). Key issues in the preceding general election campaign included “a struggling economy, the impact of the pandemic and growing frustrations about failing public services.” PNG’s elections have often featured violence, and this election was no exception. Prime Minister Marape has vowed to improve the election process ahead of the 2027 election. While Papua New Guineans are best positioned to decide on reforms, international media coverage and academic analysis point toward a few measures that the country might adopt. One relative bright spot in PNG’s elections has been ranked choice voting (RCV), which academic analysis shows has helped reduce violence.
Before considering ways to improve future elections, it is important to consider Papua New Guinea’s history and context. PNG achieved independence from Australia in 1975. The country is located north of Australia, and comprises the eastern half of the island of New Guinea (the western half is part of Indonesia). PNG’s population of 9 million people is very diverse, with 850 mutually incomprehensible languages. This diversity is a strength, but political leaders have often exploited it during elections to generate conflict.
Key electoral challenges in PNG include fraud, corruption, and violence. The Economist writes, “Paul Barker, the director of the Institute of National Affairs, a think-tank in Port Moresby, the capital, believes that each poll is getting worse in terms of the scale and extent of fraud. This one, he says, was the ‘worst election ever.’” And while the 50 election-related deaths in 2022 marked a decrease from over 200 in 2017, there is still a long way to go toward achieving an election free of violence. One potential approach is to invest more in police and ensure adequate training in de-escalation, but policing has its limits. Ultimately, as Ron May argues, “it is difficult to see what can be done without a fundamental change in the behavior of candidates, their supporters, and the voters themselves.” So another approach might be to invest in grassroots listening and organizing to negotiate pre-election community agreements before the next election.
There are other positive reforms the government might adopt. Once would be to invest in updating voter registration records. As Lyanne Togiba writes in The Guardian, “Up to a million people were believed to have been disenfranchised due to the electoral roll not being updated in a decade.” The country could also adopt quotas or targets to promote the election of more women. Togiba observes, “The new PNG parliament has female representation for the first time since 2017. Two women have been elected – central governor Rufina Peter and Rai Coast MP Kessy Sawang. They are only the eighth and ninth female MPs ever elected to parliament in PNG’s nearly 50-year history.”
While PNG’s elections have many challenges, the best available evidence suggests that RCV has had a positive impact. During two separate periods, PNG has used “limited preferential voting,” a form of RCV that limits voters to three rankings. The first period was during Australia’s pre-1975 administration. The second period has included the 2007, 2012, 2017, and 2022 general elections. Wood, Laveil, and Kabuni (2022) assess how well limited preferential voting has worked in the country, concluding that the system’s “effects have been limited” but that “all told, it appears that benefits have outweighed costs” (p. 4). Among the benefits, the authors find that limited preferential voting has probably helped reduce election-related violence, “substantially increased the share of votes that winners were elected with,” made a small contribution to improvements in women’s representation, and earned majority support among a focus group of voters (p. 12-22).
It is worth highlighting the role that RCV can play in helping to reduce violence. Each member of parliament has the opportunity to spend money within their district from a District Service Improvement (DSIP) fund (Wood et al 2022). That means there are direct financial benefits to winning a seat in parliament, creating incentives for corruption and violence. RCV counteracts these incentives for violence with incentives for peace. It normalizes campaigning across an entire district with a cooperative attitude in hopes of winning second- and third-choice rankings. This effect can help break down rigid divisions between political groups and ensures members of parliament are accountable to a broader set of voters.
Ultimately, RCV is just one of many factors that contribute to a successful election. Outside observers have suggested several potential electoral reforms, but PNG’s people are best-positioned to drive future solutions. Hopefully, they can identify the root causes of violence and corruption and adopt policies that can promote peace and integrity.
Reference
Wood, T., Laveil, M.& Kabuni, M. 2022, ‘What has limited preferential voting changed in Papua New Guinea?’, Development Policy Centre Discussion Paper No. 101, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University, Canberra.
