On Tuesday, Maine voters ranked candidates in competitive primary elections for governor and Congress. Though votes are still being counted, it’s clear that the Democratic primaries for governor and the 2nd Congressional District are very close. No candidate in either race will win a majority of first choices, and several candidates have paths to victory. 

Maine uses ranked choice voting (RCV), which lets voters rank candidates in order of preference, and ensures winners have support from a majority of voters. This article examines what we know about the state of key races in Maine – including who leads in first-choice support, and how voters’ backup choices will be crucial in determining the winners. Maine’s secretary of state expects to release ranked choice voting tabulations between June 16 and 19.

Crowded fields emphasize the importance of ranked choice voting

In most states, crowded primaries can lead to candidates winning with under 30% of the vote, or candidates being pressured to drop out to avoid splitting the vote. Maine primaries don’t have those problems because of ranked choice voting. 

In this election cycle, Maine candidates embraced RCV like never before. Two Republican gubernatorial candidates cross-endorsed each other, and soon thereafter, three Democratic candidates did the same. Another Democrat urged voters to rank him second if they preferred another candidate as their top choice.

Which candidates have a path to victory?

In Maine’s elections, if no candidate has a majority of first choices, the contest moves to a ranked choice voting count. The last-place candidate is eliminated, and votes cast for them count for the voters’ next choice. This continues until two candidates remain, and the candidate with support from a majority of voters wins.

Democratic governor primary

At the time of writing, with 93% of the vote counted, Nirav Shah leads the Democratic field with 27% of first choices. The next three candidates are tightly bunched – Hannah Pingree has 23%, Troy Jackson has 21%, and Shenna Bellows has just under 21%. Angus King III has 8%.

Despite Shah’s narrow first-choice lead, Pingree, Bellows, or Jackson could “come from behind” to win. The three candidates cross-endorsed in May, telling their voters to rank the other two highly to increase the chances one of them could win a majority. Come-from-behind victories are rare in RCV elections, occurring in about 9% of elections that have no first-choice majority winner. However, when come-from-behind victories occur, it is RCV working how it is supposed to – that is, preventing vote-splitting and/or rewarding candidates with deep and broad support over those who win only a small plurality.

A come-from-behind victory for Pingree, Bellows, or Jackson may depend on the backup choices of voters who ranked King first. In a FairVote/SurveyUSA poll, 26% of King voters said they would rank Bellows second, while only 11% said they would rank Jackson second, so Bellows still has a path to victory.

In the past, most Maine voters have ranked multiple candidates in crowded races. For example, in the 2018 governor’s race, 74% of Democratic voters ranked multiple choices in their primary. And in a recent FairVote/SurveyUSA poll, 75% of respondents ranked at least two candidates for governor.

Republican governor primary

Maine’s Republican primary for governor looks less competitive, but will also proceed to a ranked choice voting count.

At the time of writing, Robert “Bobby” Charles is leading the Republican primary for governor with 37% of first choices. Ben Midgley and Jonathan Bush are in 2nd and 3rd place, each with 20% of first choices.

We expect Charles to maintain his lead after the RCV count. In our decades of tracking RCV elections, no candidate has overcome a 17-point deficit in first-choice support and won.

Democratic 2nd Congressional District primary

The race to be Democratic nominee in this swing seat is a dead heat, with Joseph Baldacci, Jordan Wood, and Matthew Dunlap each at around 30% of first-choice support. Paige Loud trails the other three candidates, with 10% of first choices. Once Loud is eliminated and Loud voters’ second choices are considered, either Baldacci, Wood, or Dunlap will be eliminated; only two of the candidates will proceed to the final round of counting. All voters will then have their ballots count for whichever finalist they ranked higher.

The FairVote/SurveyUSA poll suggests that Dunlap will get fewer backup choices from Loud voters, and will most likely be the second candidate eliminated – however, the sample of Loud voters within the poll is small, and therefore this finding has a high margin of error. Moreover, Sen. Bernie Sanders endorsed Matt Dunlap late in the race, which could sway some Loud voters to rank Dunlap second, since Loud has run as a staunch progressive. In such a close race, any of the top three candidates could win.

RCV and semi-open primaries lead to high voter turnout

This is the first gubernatorial election in Maine that combines RCV and semi-open primaries, meaning unenrolled voters (roughly one-third of Maine voters) may vote in the party primary of their choice.

Overall turnout is already 39% higher than the last open-seat gubernatorial primaries in 2018, and is expected to increase as additional ballots are counted. Democratic primary turnout is up 60% compared to 2018, and Republican primary turnout is up 12%.The larger increase in the Democratic primary may be due to a more competitive Democratic governor race driving high participation this year.

Notably, turnout will outpace the most recent competitive presidential primaries for both parties, which is rare in midterm elections.