June 5, 2026 – A new SurveyUSA poll of likely Maine primary voters shows competitive fields for key races. In ranked choice voting counts, Bobby Charles leads the Republican gubernatorial primary, Joe Baldacci leads the 2nd Congressional District Democratic primary, and Hannah Pingree narrowly leads the Democratic gubernatorial primary. Polling was conducted among 1,048 likely voters from May 28 to June 3, in partnership with the Bangor Daily News.

“Ranked choice voting is delivering on its promise of more choice and more voice for Maine voters, and can foster a more positive form of politics with cross-endorsements,” said Meredith Sumpter, president and CEO of FairVote. “Today’s poll shows that Maine voters take advantage of ranked choice voting, find it easy to use, and like it. As other states’ primaries are won with just 20 or 30% of the vote, Maine’s use of RCV also ensures majority winners in crowded fields.” 

In the poll, respondents could rank candidates for governor and ME-2 representative. 75% of respondents rank at least two candidates in the crowded governor’s race. 84% of voters who rank at least two candidates say ranking is easy (consistent with 81% in 2024). 70% of voters who rank say that they support the ability to rank candidates (up from 64% in 2024).

Polling results for governor and congressional races

Republican gubernatorial primary

In Maine’s Republican gubernatorial primary, the poll shows Bobby Charles leading with 34% of first choices and defeating Jonathan Bush in the RCV count, 59-41%.

Democratic gubernatorial primary

In Maine’s Democratic gubernatorial primary, the poll shows Hannah Pingree narrowly leading the RCV count, within the margin of error. Among first choices, Nirav Shah leads with 25%, Troy Jackson follows with 20%, Pingree has 19%, Angus King III has 14%, and Shenna Bellows has 11%. Pingree earns support as other candidates are eliminated, and overtakes Shah when Jackson is eliminated – ultimately leading 52-48%.

The table below shows that Pingree is widely ranked among voters’ top three choices. Additionally, Pingree, Jackson, and Bellows have “cross-endorsed” each other – asking voters to rank all three on their ballots. The poll results and table indicate that voters may be listening; 64% of voters who rank Bellows first and 62% who rank Jackson first also rank Pingree in their top three choices. Most voters who rank Bellows or Jackson first have their vote count for Pingree in the final round, rather than Shah.

Maine’s 2nd District Democratic primary

In Maine’s 2nd Congressional District Democratic primary, Joe Baldacci leads with 27% of first choices, and wins with 56% support in the RCV count. Baldacci picks up substantial support in the RCV count when Paige Loud and Matthew Dunlap are eliminated.

More information and methodology

FairVote is a nonpartisan election reform organization with no opinion on candidates for office. This is an informational poll given interest in Maine’s 2026 primaries using ranked choice voting. 

Full crosstabs are available here.

SurveyUSA polled 1,048 likely and actual Republican, Democratic, and unenrolled voters from May 28 to June 3. This research was through a mix of home telephone and online panel on their smartphone, laptop or tablet. The combined pool was weighted to targets for gender, age, education, and home ownership. The credibility interval for voters’ first choices is 5.7 points for the statewide races, and is higher for the RCV count and within the individual congressional districts. 

Additional findings

Head-to-head matchups between candidates 

Below are simulated head-to-head matchups between each pair of candidates in the Republican and Democratic gubernatorial primaries. Ranked choice polling allows us to simulate these matchups.

How to read this chart: Read across rows. For example, read the top row as “Ben Midgley is ranked higher than Bobby Charles on 30% of ballots; higher than David Jones on 64% of ballots; higher than Garrett Mason on 46% of ballots,” and so on.

How to read this chart: Read across rows. For example, read the top row as “Hannah Pingree is ranked higher than Nirav Shah on 52% of ballots; higher than Troy Jackson on 58% of ballots; higher than Shenna Bellows on 52% of ballots,” and so on.

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FairVote is a nonpartisan organization seeking better elections for all. We research and advance voting reforms that make democracy more functional and representative for every American.