Illinois primary candidates win with under 30% of the vote
Yesterday’s primary elections in Illinois featured some of the most competitive races the state has seen in years. However, more choices doesn’t always mean better representation, and Tuesday’s results illustrate why.
For example, ten candidates ran in the high-profile Democratic primary for U.S. Senate, and Lt. Governor Juliana Stratton won with just 40% of the vote – meaning 60% of voters picked someone else. This was far from the most extreme case; two congressional primaries were won with less than 30% of the vote. Both of those Democratic nominees, in Illinois’s 7th and 9th Districts, are heavily favored to win deep-blue seats in November – meaning a fraction of a fraction of the electorate will choose the next representative for an entire district.
When votes are spread between many candidates, winners can emerge with less than majority support. Ranked choice voting (RCV) would solve this problem, ensuring that winning candidates have support from a majority of their constituents.
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Plurality winners in Illinois primaries
| Primary | % votes for winner | % votes for runner up | Margin between top two | Votes for other candidates |
| U.S. Senate (Dem) | 40% | 33% | 81,430 | 315,189 |
| U.S. Senate (GOP) | 40% | 23% | 90,077 | 197,213 |
| 2nd District (Dem) | 40% | 29% | 9,250 | 24,701 |
| 7th District (Dem) | 24% | 20% | 3,160 | 51,561 |
| 8th District (Dem) | 32% | 27% | 3,460 | 27,791 |
| 9th District (Dem) | 29% | 26% | 3,937 | 54,007 |
| 9th District (GOP) | 49% | 34% | 2,299 | 2,582 |
| 11th District (GOP) | 43% | 39% | 1,156 | 5,897 |
| 15th District (Dem) | 46% | 34% | 3,545 | 6,006 |
The Illinois primary and safe seats
Most congressional seats in Illinois are either safely Republican or Democratic, which can make the general election uneventful. The most meaningful opportunity for voters to influence outcomes happens in the primaries. That, however, introduces a different problem: In crowded fields, it’s common for candidates to win with less than 50% of the vote, called a “plurality,” meaning the majority of voters supported someone besides the winner. In these races, outcomes can reflect how votes happened to be divided rather than what most voters actually wanted.
This was the case in several primaries yesterday. When Senator Dick Durbin announced his retirement, a large field of candidates lined up to replace him. Juliana Stratton came out on top with 40% (roughly half a million votes), followed by U.S. Representative Raja Krishnamoorthi with 33%, and U.S. Representative Robin Kelly with 18%. Stratton will likely cruise to election in November, meaning half a million voters effectively decided who will represent everyone.
On the Republican side, former chair of the Illinois Republican Party Don Tracy won with 40% of the vote. Though Republicans have won statewide races in recent history (e.g. Governor Bruce Rauner and Senator Mark Kirk), nominating candidates who lack broad support is unlikely to help them become competitive again. Research from FairVote and Northwestern University shows that candidates who win their primary election with a plurality tend to perform worse in general elections than those who win with a majority.
Returning to Democrats, last night’s primaries effectively determined the outcome in several Chicago-area congressional districts, despite no candidate winning a majority of votes (and in some cases, a supermajority voting against the winner):
- IL-2: Cook County Commissioner Donna Miller won with 40%
- IL-7: State Representative La Shawn Ford won with 24%
- IL-8: Former U.S. Representative Melissa Bean 32%
- IL-9: Evanston Mayor Daniel Biss with 29%
In these districts, the next representative was effectively chosen by a fraction of a fraction of voters.
Ranked choice voting would improve the Illinois primary
If Illinois used ranked choice voting in primaries, parties could select strong nominees with broad support. With RCV, voters rank candidates in order of preference. If no one has a majority of votes, the lowest-performing candidates are eliminated until a candidate reaches 50% support. If your top choice is eliminated, your vote still counts toward your next choice.
Many voters across Illinois have already embraced this idea. A new poll of Illinois Democrats finds that 65% would support using RCV in the state. And four Illinois cities — Evanston, Oak Park, Skokie, and Peoria — have passed ballot measures in favor of RCV. There’s notable overlap between these cities and the districts where we saw plurality wins: Oak Park is in the 7th District, while Evanston and Skokie are in the 9th District.
RCV has also been successfully used in both government-run and party-run primaries across the country: in New York City and Maine, in Virginia and Utah, and in presidential primaries for both major parties.
In Illinois, most races are settled long before November. Since primary winners are effectively the ones who will hold office, it’s important that they have broad support. Ranked choice voting is a clear, proven way to achieve that.
Outside groups spend to split the vote
In some of yesterday’s Democratic primaries, outside groups funded ads supporting candidates they didn’t actually want to win – allegedly in an effort to split the vote and to help their preferred candidates win with a plurality.
In the U.S. Senate race, groups supporting Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi ran ads elevating Rep. Robin Kelly. Critics say the ads were an attempt to have Kelly, who is a Black woman, take away votes from another prominent Black woman in the race, Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton. Illinois Legislative Black Caucus Senate Chair Willie Preston said that:
It is a deliberate attempt to split the Black vote… It’s disgusting and I think it’s something that has to be called out publicly.
In the 9th Congressional District, an outside group funded an ad allegedly supporting Bushra Amiwala, a progressive and critic of the Israeli government. But critics said the ad was really designed to hurt fellow progressive Kat Abughazaleh and elevate Laura Fine, a more pro-Israel candidate.
My take
I’ll be transparent: I work at FairVote and advocate for ranked choice voting. But yesterday, casting my ballot as a lifelong Illinoisian, I was reminded of why I believe in this reform on a personal level. I’ve lived in several congressional districts across the state, and have never once voted in a competitive U.S. House general election.
In Illinois, the primary is the election for most people. That makes plurality wins in crowded primaries more than a theoretical problem. And even as someone informed about politics, I found it was only practical to consider the leading contenders – which defeats the purpose of having an exciting, competitive field in the first place. Yesterday’s results weren’t an anomaly. They’re how plurality primaries routinely work, and they’re why Illinois needs ranked choice voting.
