What to watch in the year’s first primary elections
The 2026 midterms officially kick off next week, with primary elections in Texas, Arkansas, and North Carolina – followed by elections in Georgia and Illinois in mid-March. A historic number of congressional retirements has produced crowded, nasty, open-seat races across the United States. Some races will see candidates win with just a small fraction of the vote, while others will go to costly, low-turnout runoffs.
Read on to learn about the March primary elections – and why they would be better with ranked choice voting (RCV).
March 3: Texas, Arkansas, and North Carolina primaries
All three states holding primaries next Tuesday use runoffs if candidates do not earn a certain share of votes – 50% in Texas and Arkansas, and 30% in North Carolina.
Runoff elections are supposed to make government more representative by electing candidates with majority support. But in practice, runoffs usually shrink the electorate and come with a significant price tag for taxpayers. FairVote’s research on primary runoffs finds an average 40% turnout drop from the initial election; 81% of winners earn fewer votes in the runoff than in the initial election. Just last month, Texas held runoffs in two special elections. One of those saw turnout drop by a whopping 69%.
The biggest race to watch may be Texas’ Republican U.S. Senate primary, which has eight candidates. This race has already seen nearly $100 million spent on advertising – flooding Texas airwaves with negative ads. If no candidate earns a majority of votes, as appears likely, the runoff will be held on May 26; Texans likely will have to endure another 12 weeks of attack ads, and campaigns will need to fundraise and spend for an additional three months.
RCV is a faster, cheaper, better alternative – eliminating the need for a runoff election and saving money and time for taxpayers and campaigns alike.
For more information, visit Instant Runoff Voting for Texas.
In case you missed them, here are the latest articles from FairVote’s research team – on a New Jersey primary won with 29% of the vote, and runoff turnout decline in Texas:
March 10: Georgia special election
The special election for Georgia’s 14th Congressional District will have 18 candidates – including 13 Republicans, three Democrats, a Libertarian, and an independent. If no candidate earns over 50% of the vote, the top two will advance to a runoff on April 7 – subjecting Georgians to another month of ads and campaigning.
With ranked choice voting, Georgians wouldn’t have to worry about runoffs. Visit Better Ballot Georgia to learn more about RCV in the Peach State.
March 17: Crowded primaries in Illinois
U.S. Senator Dick Durbin is retiring, setting up an open-seat race in the Midwest’s largest state. 10 Democrats and six Republicans will appear on their party primary ballots for the seat. Additionally, the Chicago area has crowded primaries for four open House seats that could be won with a small share of the vote.
In each of these races, the Democratic primary winners are all but certain to win the general election. Each district’s next representative could effectively be chosen by just a tiny fraction of voters.
This problem isn’t limited to Illinois. All across the country, there are crowded primaries where candidates could win without majority support.
In 2022, 120 candidates won major-party primaries for U.S. House, Senate, and statewide offices with less than 50% of the vote.
Ranked choice voting is growing in popularity throughout the state. Three Illinois cities – Evanston, Oak Park, and Skokie – have passed RCV since 2022; all are located in districts with crowded primaries this year.
Visit FairVote Illinois to learn more about RCV in the Land of Lincoln.
This is just the start of primary season; we’ll continue to see crowded primaries with plurality winners, costly runoffs, and the case for ranked choice voting over the next several months.
Thank you for reading our post, and we look forward to sharing more as primary season continues.
