Texas Senate runoff sees turnout decline by 36%, shows need for ranked choice voting

On May 26, Texas held runoff elections in primaries for U.S. Senate, U.S. House, and a variety of statewide offices. The runoffs may have cost taxpayers as much as $23 million. 

Turnout in the high-profile Republican Senate runoff declined 36% from the March 3 primary. The median turnout drop was 42%, with a decline as high as 82% in a Democratic primary for Texas’s 17th congressional district. 

Ranked choice voting (RCV) is a better, faster, and cheaper alternative to runoffs. It would let Texas voters pick majority winners in a single, high-turnout election, without the cost of delayed runoffs.

Read on to learn about the Texas runoffs, and why ranked choice voting is a better way to hold elections.

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Texas Senate runoff

The highest-profile race on Tuesday was the Republican U.S. Senate runoff between incumbent John Cornyn and Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton. Approximately 2.2 million Texans voted in March, while only 1.4 million voted in the runoff – a drop of 36%. 

As of this writing, it appears that Paxton will win the runoff with fewer votes than John Cornyn had in the first round.

Texas Republican Senate Primary Results

CandidateVotes in initial electionVotes in runoff election
Ken Paxton881,141885,949
John Cornyn907,239501,725
Wesley Hunt292,663Candidate didn’t advance to runoff
Other candidates84,770Candidates didn’t advance to runoff
Total2,165,8131,387,674

Following Paxton’s win, Cook Political Report has shifted its rating of the race from “Likely Republican” to “Lean Republican.” Democrat James Talarico was able to secure his party’s nomination with majority support in March, avoiding a runoff and getting a three-month head start on the general election campaign. 

Meanwhile, Cornyn and Paxton spent another 12 weeks and $20 million in a bruising fight against each other; Paxton may now face a competitive general election with fewer resources than Talarico.

Other Texas runoff elections

In addition to the Republican Senate primary, there were runoffs for 20 U.S. House primaries and four statewide positions. Several of these are “safe” seats, where winning the dominant party’s primary nearly guarantees election in the fall. This means that the tiny fraction of voters who turned out for the primary runoff is electing an official for their entire district or state.   

For example, Republicans are heavily favored to win the important seat of Texas Attorney General. That primary went to a runoff, which saw a turnout decline of 34%. The winner, Mayes Middleton, got 55,578 fewer votes in the runoff than he did in the primary – effectively defeating the purpose of the runoff. 

On the Democratic side of the ballot, there was no marquee statewide race like the Republicans had with the Senate runoff. Turnout declines were even higher, including in two safe Democratic congressional districts where the winner is heavily favored to win office in November. 

In the Democratic runoff for Texas’s 18th District, turnout fell 48%. Christian Menefee won with 33,957 votes – about 10,000 fewer votes than he received in the March primary. In the 33rd District, turnout fell 71%. Colin Allred won the Democratic runoff with only 11,307 votes – about one-third of his vote total in the March primary. 

Runoff elections are supposed to make government more representative by electing candidates with majority support. But in practice, runoffs usually shrink the electorate and come with a significant price tag for taxpayers. 

Runoff costs are often similar to the costs of any other statewide election; a 2024 statewide primary in Texas cost $23 million.

Ranked choice voting offers a better alternative

Ranked choice voting offers a better, faster, cheaper alternative. RCV allows voters to rank candidates in order of preference – with an “instant runoff” determining a majority winner if necessary. This means winners are determined on Election Day, when participation is naturally the highest and voters still have access to the full range of choices. With RCV, voters wouldn’t need to cast a second ballot for the same offices, and taxpayers wouldn’t have to cover the cost of a second election.

Even if Texas doesn’t adopt RCV for all voters, it could still improve its elections by sending RCV ballots to military and overseas voters – as six Southern states already do. This allows military voters to participate in runoffs more easily, without needing to ship a separate ballot around the world if a runoff occurs. This change would also allow Texas to shorten the delay between the primary and runoff.

Research shows that the longer the delay, the more runoff turnout falls. In South Carolina and Georgia – which send RCV ballots to military and overseas voters – the delays are just two weeks and four weeks, respectively.

Notably, voters in Texas’ capital city of Austin have already voted to replace their runoff elections with RCV – though the city is waiting for state legislative approval to implement the change. 

To support RCV in the Lone Star State, visit Instant Runoff Voting for Texas today!