Because of Alaska’s “top four” system, four candidates have advanced in the open race for governor – Democrat Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins, and Republicans Bernadette Wilson, Dave Bronson, and Treg Taylor. Kreiss-Tomkins finished first in the August primary with 22.5% of the vote, followed by Democrat Tom Begich, who won 20.8% but withdrew after the primary and endorsed Kreiss-Tomkins. Before Begich’s withdrawal, Wilson, Bronson, and Taylor finished third, fourth, and fifth.  

Voters will be able to choose among three Republican candidates, and devoted partisans can use their rankings to consolidate behind the party’s strongest candidate. Recently, Bronson and Taylor released a joint campaign video also encouraging Republicans to rank all three Republican candidates. In August, Alaska’s GOP congressman encouraged Republican voters to rank every Republican in the race. In 2022, Alaska Republican voters successfully used a “rank the red” strategy to win two State House seats with multiple Republican candidates and one Democrat. 

A recent New York Times poll shows Kreiss-Tomkins with a wide lead in first choices, which narrows significantly in the RCV tally, after most Republican voters consolidate behind Wilson. However, voters are independent-minded, especially in Alaska – and we expect that some voters who rank a Republican first in November might also rank Kreiss-Tomkins highly on their ballots.   

While RCV allows multiple candidates of the same party to run for the same office in November, some candidates choose not to. When Democrat Tom Begich dropped out of the governor’s race, he explained that his campaign did not have the funding to continue to November, and that he found Kreiss-Tomkins’ values “very, very similar” to his own. Begich, along with former Republican gubernatorial candidate Lesil McGuire, expressed his support for Alaska’s election system:

It’s good for us as Alaskans… we would both rather lose in a contest with more voters than win while only needing to cater to a smaller base.

Begich and McGuire explained the decision to drop out after the primary as transparent, in contrast to would-be candidates across the country who choose not to run at all – often after party leaders instruct them behind closed doors to “wait their turn”:

These flaws are not unique to this system; they are pressures that persist in every election throughout the country… The parts that are working are real and important… when a hard choice had to be made as a result of limited funding, it was made in public, a candidate’s own decision, explained directly to voters.

All 40 of Alaska’s state House seats, and 10 of 20 state Senate seats, are up for election this year. Cross-partisan coalitions have led both houses of the Alaska Legislature since the 2022 elections – the state’s first election cycle with RCV. It’s likely the coalitions will continue to lead the legislature after 2026; according to the Alaska Beacon, “coalition-leaning candidates” led 24 of the 40 House primaries, and 7 of the 10 Senate primaries.

Since Alaska’s election system was implemented, legislative elections have become more competitive. Only 18% of races are uncontested this cycle, well below the 24.5% average in the decade before Alaska’s election reforms passed, and the 32% average nationally in 2022.

Since Alaska adopted its election system, voters elected the state’s first ever majority-women House and the most racially diverse legislature ever.

Based on Alaska’s previous RCV elections, voters are likely to use the opportunity to rank, and to do so with ease. FairVote’s analysis of the 2022 and 2024 elections shows that most Alaska voters rank multiple candidates, especially in competitive races or when their first choice is not a frontrunner. In other words, voters rank when it matters. 

See specifics from the 2022 competitive statewide elections below:

Rankings used in Alaska’s 2022 U.S. Senate race

Rankings used in Alaska’s 2022 U.S. House race

Rankings used in Alaska’s 2022 governor race

Our analysis shows that voters are more likely to rank when their first choice is not a frontrunner, or when they support multiple ideologically similar candidates. For example, look at the high ranking numbers for Patricia Chesbro voters in the U.S. Senate race, or Chris Bye voters in the U.S. House race. Similarly, more Republicans than Democrats ranked in the U.S. House race, when there was one competitive Democrat and two competitive Republicans on the ballot. 

In these elections with multiple candidates from the same party on the ballot, most voters rank candidates from the same party as their first and second choice – though a meaningful share do cross party lines.

The ballot data speaks to voters understanding the system, with 99.9% of ballots valid in 2022. Voters say so directly, too: In 2024, 84% of Alaska voters said RCV is simple.

As Alaskans rank their choices for statewide and legislative races, they’ll also be voting once again on whether to keep ranked choice voting for future elections. The full reform package at stake includes RCV, the top four primary, and an anti-dark money rule requiring the public disclosure of contributions over $2,000. Alaskans have supported these reforms twice already – first by voting to adopt them in 2020, and then by voting against a repeal of the top-four primary and RCV in 2024. 

Though voters say RCV is simple and that they like the additional competition and choice offered by Alaska’s election system, the vote is expected to be close. The 2024 measure was not called until the end of Alaska’s 15-day window for accepting absentee ballots, and “No” on repeal did not pull ahead until the last days of that window.  

The “No on 2” campaign has amassed a range of supporters from across the political spectrum, with a recent endorsement from the Anchorage Daily News – the state’s largest newspaper. The repeal campaign has been funded with $1.5 million from billionaire Elon Musk, and has been accused of misleading advertising claiming that a repeal vote will “bring back open primaries” when it does just the opposite. 

Voting no on Ballot Measure 2 empowers Alaskans by giving them the choice to pick from the full field of candidates and by keeping strong tools for seeing who’s paying for the litany of ads we suffer. Keep our elections fair, honest and open.

– Anchorage Daily News editorial board

Elected leaders serve everyone in their district, not just their party base. Our election system reinforces the responsibility of public service by expecting leaders to earn trust across the community to reach majority support.

– Alaska Senate Majority Leader Cathy Giessel, urging voters to oppose Measure 2

Read more about the “No on 2” campaign on the No on 2 website.

While some familiar partisan dynamics persist in Alaska, Alaska’s election system – including both the top-four primary and ranked choice voting – has delivered meaningful changes. Alaska voters get more choices in the primary and general elections, and majority winners in November. Alaskans can vote honestly for the candidates they like most, without fear of “spoiler” candidates. The system has also helped elect a more functional, cross-partisan legislature that is responsive to Alaska voters. No reform is a silver bullet, but Alaska’s election system has made elections and governance better. 

Visit AlaskansforBetterElections.com to learn more.