How will remaining ballots affect Alaska’s statewide elections?
An estimated 74% of ballots have been counted in Alaska’s statewide elections. In addition to reporting first choices, the Alaska Division of Elections has released a preliminary cast vote record (CVR) – an anonymized digital record of most ballots counted so far. FairVote has used that cast vote record to create preliminary, unofficial RCV tallies.
Alaska ballots are still being counted, and the leaders could change in the coming days. In prior elections, late-arriving ballots in Alaska have tended to favor Democrats more than those counted earlier, since many of Alaska’s hard-to-reach rural communities lean Democratic.
FairVote created the interactive charts below to visualize how results could change as the remaining ballots are counted. Readers can explore possible outcomes by adjusting three factors:
- The share of ballots remaining,
- The candidates ranked first on those ballots, and
- The backup choices of voters who ranked lower-performing candidates or write-ins first.
For #2 and #3, we use current data – the current first-choice results as of 7:00am Alaska time on November 6, and the transfer patterns from the cast vote record – as defaults.
Note: This is an interactive tool, and does not represent official results. Those are available on the Alaska Division of Elections website.
Governor
In FairVote’s analysis of the preliminary cast vote record, Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins’ margin shrinks about 9.5 points in the RCV count.
Note: The below interactive uses current data – the current first-choice results, and the transfer patterns from the cast vote record – as defaults. Based on previous elections, we expect late-arriving ballots in Alaska to favor Democrats more than those counted earlier. This is an interactive tool, and does not represent official results.
Drag the sliders to explore possible outcomes. Default values are explained below.
This is a share of all remaining ballots. Write-ins stay at their counted share (). Kreiss-Tomkins has of ballots counted so far.
Among ballots that are not inactive, this is the share that rank Wilson higher than Kreiss-Tomkins.
More detailed slider options
Moving a candidate’s slider overrides the combined slider above for that candidate. The combined slider shows the average of the candidates’ sliders, weighted by their ballots.
U.S. House
In FairVote’s analysis of the preliminary cast vote record, Nick Begich’s margin shrinks about 2.5 points in the RCV count.
Note: The below interactive uses current data – the current first-choice results, and the transfer patterns from the cast vote record – as defaults. Based on previous elections, we expect late-arriving ballots in Alaska to favor Democrats more than those counted earlier. This is an interactive tool, and does not represent official results.
Drag the sliders to explore possible outcomes. Default values are explained below.
This is a share of all remaining ballots. Write-ins & votes for 3rd- and 4th-place candidates stay at their counted share (). Hill has of ballots counted so far.
Among ballots that are not inactive, this is the share that rank Begich higher than Hill.
More detailed slider options
Moving a candidate’s slider overrides the combined slider above for that candidate. The combined slider shows the average of the candidates’ sliders, weighted by their ballots.
U.S. Senate
In FairVote’s analysis of the preliminary cast vote record, Dan S. Sullivan gains about 0.5 points in the RCV count. This race is currently the closest of the three statewide elections. Though Senator Sullivan would narrowly lead an RCV count based on ballots counted so far, a change in leader is likely as more ballots arrive.
Note: The below interactive uses current data – the current first-choice results, and the transfer patterns from the cast vote record – as defaults. Based on previous elections, we expect late-arriving ballots in Alaska to favor Democrats more than those counted earlier. Reporting suggests Mary Peltola is likely ranked first on most ballots that remain to be counted. This is an interactive tool, and does not represent official results.
Drag the sliders to explore possible outcomes. Default values are explained below.
This is a share of all remaining ballots. Write-ins & votes for 3rd- and 4th-place candidates stay at their counted share (). Dan S. Sullivan has of ballots counted so far.
Among ballots that are not inactive, this is the share that rank Dan S. Sullivan higher than Peltola.
More detailed slider options
Moving a candidate’s slider overrides the combined slider above for that candidate. The combined slider shows the average of the candidates’ sliders, weighted by their ballots.
FairVote will update this interactive tool periodically, including on Tuesday, November 10 – the next expected day when Alaska’s Division of Elections will release results.
