Primary Runoff Elections and Decline in Voter Turnout, 1994-2022
Jeremy Rose | November 09, 2022
Ten states hold primary runoff elections if no candidate wins a majority of the votes in a major party’s primary: Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Louisiana, Mississippi, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Texas, North Carolina (30% threshold), and South Dakota (35% threshold).
This report studies three decades of primary runoff elections. Based on turnout declines, disparate outcomes for voters of color, and high costs of runoff elections, FairVote recommends ranked choice voting, also known as instant runoff voting, as a way to preserve the goals of runoff elections while solving their pervasive issues.
Key findings of the report include:
- Near-Universal Decline in Turnout. Turnout declined between the primary and the runoff in 266 of the 276 regularly scheduled primary runoffs in the U.S House and U.S. Senate from 1994 to 2022. In other words, in 96% of primary runoff elections, fewer people voted in the second round than in the first. The median decline in turnout was 40%.
- Primary Runoff Timing a Key Factor. The longer the wait between the initial primary and the runoff, the higher the decrease in voter turnout between elections typically is. Runoffs held between 31 and 40 days after the initial primary have a median turnout decline over three times higher than that of runoffs held between 11 and 20 days after the initial primary.
- Runoff Come-From-Behind Wins Are Common. Of the 276 runoffs in this time period, 89 (32%) resulted in a primary winner who trailed in the first round. These nominees likely had the broadest support in their states or districts, but would not have been nominated under plurality voting. Although runoffs aim to achieve the important goal of picking winners with broad support, the big declines in turnout often undermine that goal.
The dataset used in this report can be found here.
