Monopoly Politics 2022
Monopoly politics is a bi-annual project conducted by FairVote each Congressional election cycle. Produced every two years since 1997, FairVote’s Monopoly Politics analysis emphasizes what really matters in congressional elections over candidates, platforms, and issues: partisanship.
This report presents our full 2022 House of Representatives projections and methodology, examines decades-long trends in incumbent advantage and crossover representatives, and presents the Fair Representation Act as the solution to the dysfunction in the House of Representatives.
2022 projections
Explore below for a preview of the most polarizing congressional election cycle in 25 years, and learn how the Fair Representation Act can break us free from increased polarization, gridlock, and gerrymandering.
25th Anniversary of Monopoly Politics
FairVote pioneered the Monopoly Politics methodology in 1997 to show what really matters in congressional elections: partisanship. Our methodology has since been adapted into the Partisan Voting Index (PVI) and other similar measures.
Our ability to examine trends over 25 years of congressional elections demonstrates the degree to which political polarization has increased.
Monopoly Politics’ high-confidence projections were over 99% accurate for five of the last six election cycles. Even in the highly volatile 2018 election cycle where the historic “blue wave” of new Democrats disrupted traditional patterns of partisanship and incumbency, Monopoly Politics still achieved a 97% accuracy rate, correctly projecting 368 of its 379 high-confidence seats.
Competitive seats on the decline
The Monopoly Politics methodology routinely makes high-confidence projections for 80% of seats or more. Over the last two decades, the number of seats for which we make high-confidence projections has increased, as more seats become “safe” for one party.
Incumbency is becoming less important
Crossover representatives are going extinct
Redistricting was intended to ensure legislatures keep pace with changing population trends. Instead, partisan lawmakers have used it to further political goals by drawing boundaries to protect incumbents, harm opponents and reduce competition.
When one party controls a state legislature or the U.S. House, lawmakers often use advanced computer software to manipulate district lines. The software is so precise that lawmakers choose their voters — instead of voters choosing them.
Skewed representation in states
National partisan representation appears mostly “balanced” — meaning if 50% of voters prefer Democrats, Democrats will win close to 50% of seats. But balance does not equal fairness, and it masks a troubling lack of representation and competition within states. In other words, with both Democrats and Republicans maximizing gerrymanders and geographic advantages in the states they control, the final national results may come out close to even — but voters’ voices have nothing to do with it.
For example, new maps in Connecticut and Oklahoma are both likely to produce one-party delegations. But 40% of Connecticut residents vote Republican, and 30% of Oklahomans vote Democratic. With five seats in each state, any fair seat allocation in either state would include representatives of both parties.
The Fair Representation Act
The Fair Representation Act breaks us free from monopoly politics. It restores meaningful choice and real representation for voters by combining fewer district lines with a fair voting system: proportional ranked choice voting.
Under the Fair Representation Act (FRA), every district will be competitive, and every district will have “crossover representatives.” Lawmakers will have new incentives to collaborate.
The FRA in small states
States with 5 representatives or fewer would elect all representatives statewide, using proportional RCV. For example, Connecticut and Oklahoma would create better representation than their current single-winner district maps.
The FRA in medium and large states
In states with six or more Representatives, the Fair Representation Act would create multi-member districts of 3-5 members each.
For example, Texas would elect representatives from 8 multi-member districts instead of 38 single-member districts. This drastically reduces opportunities to gerrymander, brings multi-party representation to every district, and increases opportunities for women and people of color.
Download the full report
Addendum: Post-election update
This section was added after the conclusion of the 2022 Congressional election. The 2022 report accurately predicted 99% of high confidence projections, maintaining the stellar record of FairVote’s Monopoly Politics. Click here to read more.
