FairVote Predicts Election Results With Astounding Accuracy
Election Day 2022 is over, and the results are in! Before Election Day, FairVote predicted the results of every US House race in our biennial “Monopoly Politics” report. The election returns reveal that once again, our methodology has forecasted the results with astounding accuracy.
This year, we made 349 high confidence projections (accounting for 80% of seats) and 435 overall projections. The 86-seat difference was possibly competitive races. We correctly predicted 347 (99.4%) of our high confidence projections. For the full House, we made 417 (95.8%) correct predictions.
Our methodology relies on simple voting history. For this reason, we usually predict the results of the next election shortly after the current election. (So keep an eye out for Monopoly Politics 2024!) However, this is a testament to just how predictable and uncompetitive US House elections are, and how partisanship is increasingly the only thing that matters in elections.
There is, however, a solution that would restore competition in congressional elections and better reflect peoples’ diverse views. The Fair Representation Act (FRA) would institute multi-member districts and proportional ranked choice voting. FairVote Action recently drew sample congressional maps for the FRA. Most districts would contain a “toss-up” seat, which means candidates will have to seriously compete for and be accountable to general election voters. Further, because nearly every ballot would consist of multiple Democrats and Republicans, candidates would have to compete on more than simple partisanship, perhaps differentiating themselves on voting records and policies of importance. Even the safest red or deepest blue districts would have real choices to make.
Even though so many of our predictions came true, we wish we lived in a world where they didn’t. Federal elections should not be this monotonous and one dimensional. The partisan balance of the House should not be dictated by the handful of unpredictable races. Fortunately, the FRA presents a strong solution.
