January 24, 2024 – With the New Hampshire primary in the books, the 2024 presidential campaign moves to the Virgin Islands and its third-in-the-nation Feb. 8 Republican caucus using ranked choice voting. 

Of course, the Virgin Islands offers a small delegate haul and the race is down to two major candidates. The changed dynamic has removed a major substantive draw of RCV in primaries – allowing a party to identify a majority-supported nominee in a field with 3+ candidates, without “spoilers” or “vote-splitting.”

But it will be the only competitive contest before South Carolina, with Nikki Haley and Donald Trump each participating in different contests in Nevada. And like New Hampshire and South Carolina, the Virgin Islands ballot will include the names of candidates who’ve already dropped out of the race. In those states, voters may (knowingly or unknowingly) “waste” their vote on a candidate who’s already withdrawn – 700,000 Republicans wasted their vote this way in 2016, 3 million Democrats did in 2020, and about 5,500 New Hampshire Republicans did in yesterday’s primary. With RCV, if a voter’s 1st-choice candidate drops out, their vote simply counts for their second choice. 

Both parties have a history of success with RCV for nominations, including Republicans using it to nominate their statewide ticket in Virginia in 2021. Those nominees swept all three seats, led by now-Gov. Glenn Youngkin. 

Here’s more on what to expect from the US Virgin Islands ranked choice voting caucus:

1. Ranked choice voting works like an instant runoff, party convention, or caucus.  Voters pick a first-choice candidate and have the option to rank backup candidates in order of preference: second, third, and so on. 

If a candidate receives more than half of the first choices, that candidate wins. If not, the candidate with the fewest votes is eliminated. Voters who picked that candidate as “Number 1” will have their votes count for their next choice. This repeats until a candidate wins a majority.

This is a faster version of a runoff or multi-round party convention – it asks voters, “If your favorite can’t win, which top-performing candidate would you prefer?” 

2. Voters like and understand RCV. It’s been used in other Republican and presidential primaries, and the Virgin Islands caucus will be run by Republican election administrators with RCV experience. Virginia Republicans have used RCV for the last four election cycles, including to nominate Gov. Glenn Youngkin, Lt. Gov. Winsome Sears, and Attorney General Jason Miyares in 2021 and for four congressional nominations in 2022. In a 2022 poll, 56% of Virginia Republican primary voters who used RCV in congressional primaries reported that they prefer RCV to single-choice elections.

Ranked choice voting has also frequently been used to nominate Utah Republican candidates and party officials, and was used in five states’ Democratic presidential primaries in 2020. In a September 2023 poll, 62% of Republican voters said they would support using RCV for the 2024 presidential primaries. 

The Virgin Islands RCV count should take just minutes after ballots have been collected from all three voting sites (one on each major island), with a results release livestreamed around 8:00 p.m. Atlantic (7:00 Eastern) on Feb. 8.

3. Ranked choice voting would allow more candidates to stay in the race, and let voters decide instead of party elites. Candidates like Chris Christie and Vivek Ramaswamy have been pressured out of the race lest they “split the vote” or “play spoiler” – Christie by anti-Trump leaders, and Ramaswamy by pro-Trump leaders. 

In a ranked choice contest, more candidates could stay in the race, instead of being pressured to drop out. For example, a voter could rank Christie first and Haley second; if Christie were eliminated, the vote would count for Haley instead of indirectly helping Trump. Likewise, a voter could rank Ramaswamy first and Trump second; if Ramaswamy were eliminated, the vote would count for Trump instead of helping Haley. 

With ranked choice voting, voters can identify a consensus, majority nominee in a multi-candidate field. 

4. Here’s how the delegate math will work: The Virgin Islands has four delegates, reduced from nine by the RNC because it is holding its caucus before March 15. Aligned to the RNC’s rules, its delegate selection plan allocates all four delegates to a candidate if they win over 50%, either on first choices alone or as a result of the ranked choice voting count. 

(On Feb. 8, voters will also elect party offices, including RNC National Committee and Republican State Committee members, on a separate, non-RCV ballot.)

Here are additional resources for reporters covering the Virgin Islands caucus:  

• 2024 Virgin Islands GOP caucus – Republican Party in the Virgin Islands 
• 2024 Virgin Islands GOP caucus ballot
• Ranked choice voting video explainer
• Displaying ranked choice voting results
  • RCVis – results visualization tool 
  • How to display RCV election results 
  • Visualization of Glenn Youngkin RCV nomination in 2021
• Use ranked choice for SC Republican primary – Editorial Staff, Charleston Post & Courier
• Ranked choice voting would dramatically improve the 2024 Republican primary – Matthew Germer, R Street Institute
• Ranked choice poll examines the Republican field after the second debate – FairVote / WPA Intelligence
• Instead of pushing Christie out, GOP should use ranked choice voting – Saul Anuzis & Stan Lockhart, Real Clear Politics

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