October 5, 2023 – FairVote, a nonpartisan organization seeking better elections for all, released a new analysis on the electoral incentives driving the eight GOP members who voted to oust Kevin McCarthy: “The Motion to Vacate and Electoral Incentives.”

The analysis identifies that:

• Six of the eight were first elected with a minority of GOP primary votes in hyper-partisan districts. 
• Those six representatives were effectively elected by just 284,774 primary voters in total. 
• Notably, ringleader Matt Gaetz won less than 36,000 votes (36%) in his first Republican primary in 2016. 

Below is a table of these members elected by a fraction of a fraction of the electorate:

As we head into the upcoming speaker’s race, the analysis also points to ranked choice voting as a better way to pick the speaker. In the Speaker’s race, RCV could quickly and smoothly identify a consensus winner without requiring concessions like the one-person “motion to vacate.”

Congressmen Jamie Raskin and Don Beyer also authored a new opinion piece advocating for RCV for Speaker elections on MSNBC.com. 

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FairVote is a nonpartisan organization seeking better elections for all. We research and advance voting reforms that make democracy more functional and representative for every voter.