Most 2024 third-party voters support ranked choice voting and preferred Trump over Harris, poll finds
A new nationwide poll from FairVote and Lake Research Partners surveyed Americans who voted for third-party and independent candidates for president. Key findings include:
- 87% of third-party voters say they are aware of ranked choice voting (RCV). 86% say they support it.
- These voters preferred Donald Trump over Kamala Harris. In the poll, Jill Stein voters (66%), Robert F. Kennedy Jr. voters (59%), and Chase Oliver voters (a 36% plurality) all preferred Trump to Harris.
- Given a choice between only the two major-party candidates, most third-party voters would still vote, but 13% say they would not and 5% are not sure.
- These voters are ideologically committed to voting third-party. They like and trust third-party candidates, strongly dislike the two-party system, and strongly dislike the status quo.
The November survey included 538 people who voted for Jill Stein, the Green Party nominee; Chase Oliver, the Libertarian nominee; and independent candidates Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Cornel West.
Taken together with a new Citizen Data survey showing that 47% of Americans say they voted for the lesser of two evils in at least one election on their ballot in 2024, the Lake Research Partners poll points to voters’ nuanced preferences and the value of reforms like RCV that can support a wider range of candidates on the ballot.
Most prefer Trump over Harris; 13% would have stayed home
The poll asked voters who they would have voted for if the only presidential candidates were the two major-party nominees. 55% would have chosen Trump, 27% would have chosen Harris, 13% would not have voted for president, and 5% are undecided.
Voters for Stein, Oliver, and Kennedy all prefer Trump over Harris. (Our sample did not include enough West voters to calculate their preferences separately). This is somewhat surprising, given evidence that both major parties saw Stein as a potential “spoiler” hurting Harris, though it validates a Nobel Predictive Insights poll from October.
The 13% of voters who would not have voted at all demonstrates how third-party and independent candidates can drive voter turnout. Nationally, there were roughly 2.2 million voters for Stein, Oliver, Kennedy, and West, suggesting that nearly 300,000 people would have skipped the presidential election if those candidates hadn’t been on the ballot.
Independent and third-party voters want ranked choice voting
Third-party voters are highly aware of and enthusiastically support ranked choice voting. 87% had previously heard of RCV, and 86% favor using it for presidential elections (more than seven times the 12% opposed).
Introducing RCV in more states has potential to raise enthusiasm and turnout among voters like these. Many of these voters may rank backup choices in future elections if given the chance, as indicated by the majority expressing a preference between Trump and Harris.
Top reasons for voting for a third-party or independent candidate
The poll asked respondents to choose up to two of their top reasons for voting for an independent or third-party candidate. Below are the results:
Stein voters were particularly likely to say they wanted to make a statement against the major parties, while Kennedy voters were more likely to say that candidate matched their values.
This poll indicates that third-party voters are frustrated with the two-party system, but nonetheless want to participate in elections. They desire more choices that they feel align with their values and priorities.
These voters view their choice to vote third-party through a positive lens more than a negative one, but many are also using their vote to express their frustrations with the two-party system.
Survey methodology
Lake Research Partners designed and administered this survey, which was conducted online from a sample of 538 (weighted sample size) third-party voters (Stein, Oliver, Kennedy, or West. only) nationwide, excluding Alaska, Maine, and New York. The survey was conducted November 7-17, 2024. The margin of error for the full sample is +/- 4.2%.
Photos of candidates are by Gage Skidmore and Matt A.J.
