Missouri’s likely next leaders chosen without majority support
Yesterday, Missouri’s Republican primaries for governor, lieutenant governor, secretary of state, and treasurer were won by candidates with less than 50% of the vote. In such a deep red state, these primary winners are all but certain to win their general elections – meaning just a fraction of a fraction of the electorate likely chose who will govern all Missourians. Ranked choice voting (RCV) would ensure that Missouri election outcomes reflect the will of the majority of voters.
Statewide Republican primaries in Missouri
| Office | Number of candidates | Leading candidate | Leader’s vote share |
| Governor | 9 | Mike Kehoe | 39.4% |
| Lieutenant Governor | 6 | David Wasinger | 31.4% |
| Secretary of State | 8 | Denny Hoskins | 24.4% |
| Treasurer | 6 | Vivek Malek | 41.5% |
| Attorney General | 2 | Andrew Bailey | 63.0% |
| U.S. Senator | 1 | Josh Hawley | Uncontested |
Take the Republican gubernatorial primary, which had nine candidates. In an ideal system, having more candidates in a race would be something to celebrate: It would give voters more options to find a candidate who represents them best. The Republican gubernatorial primary exemplified this, with a healthy mix of moderate and right-wing candidates. Lt. Governor Mike Kehoe ran more toward the center, expressing interest in adding exceptions to Missouri’s abortion ban, while Secretary of State Jay Ashcroft marked himself as further right by pushing to abolish Missouri’s income tax.
However, Missouri’s broken, single-choice elections couldn’t accommodate this much voter choice. Kehoe won the Republican nomination for governor with just 39% of the vote, while the remaining 61% of Republicans picked someone else. Meanwhile, David Wasinger leads the lieutenant gubernatorial primary with less than a third of the vote, and Denny Hoskins won the secretary of state primary with less than a fourth of the vote! In other words, large majorities of Missouri Republicans preferred candidates other than those who won, casting doubt on whether Missouri’s primaries truly reflected the electorate’s desires.
Ranked choice voting would ensure Missouri elections reflect more of the electorate. Voters could rank candidates in order of preference, giving them backup choices in case their favorite candidate can’t win. In other words, voters no longer have to choose between voting honestly and weighing in on the choice between the two finalists.
“Vote-splitting” and minority winners are not just a problem for Missouri Republicans. It affects both political parties in all 50 states. See our recent “Fewest Votes Wins” analysis of 49 statewide and congressional primaries that have been won with less than 50% of the vote this year – including races in Arizona, Indiana, Maryland, New Jersey, Virginia, Utah, and Colorado.
RCV is the fastest-growing election reform in the U.S., and could make Missouri’s next primaries more representative of the state’s voters. Several of Missouri’s neighbors already use RCV. Cities across Illinois and Minnesota have embraced RCV for local elections, and six Southern states use ranked ballots to let military and overseas voters easily participate in runoffs. Check out Better Ballot Kansas City for more information on RCV in Missouri.
