Arizona keeps nominating candidates without majority support. Ranked choice voting could help.
In the Arizona primaries on Tuesday, there were four congressional contests where no candidate won a majority of the vote. The Republican primary in Arizona’s 8th Congressional District was especially competitive and drew significant national attention; six candidates appeared on the ballot, and Abraham Hamadeh won with just 30% of the vote.
Since the 8th District is heavily Republican, the nominee is all but certain to win the general election – meaning just a fraction of a fraction of the electorate chose the representative for everyone. Ranked choice voting (RCV) would ensure more Arizonans are heard in the state’s elections.
| Candidate | Share of the vote |
| Abraham Hamadeh | 29.8% |
| Blake Masters | 25.5% |
| Ben Toma | 21.1% |
| Trent Franks | 16.5% |
| Anthony Kern | 4.8% |
| Patrick Briody | 2.3% |
The other primaries that advanced winners without majority support are the 1st Congressional District, where Amish Shah won the Democratic primary with 24% of the vote; the 3rd Congressional District, where Yassamin Ansari leads the Democratic field with 46%; and the 4th Congressional District, where Kelly Cooper won the Republican primary with 32%. The 3rd District is safely Democratic – just like the 8th District, a fraction of primary voters are likely choosing the representative for an entire district.
On the other hand, the 1st District is expected to be one of the nation’s few true toss-up seats this year, making it especially important for parties to advance strong nominees. Yet Shah may struggle with less than one-quarter of the party united behind him. Recent research from Northwestern University and FairVote finds that non-majority winners typically perform worse in competitive general elections than candidates who win the primary with a majority.
We saw that effect in Arizona in 2022. Abraham Hamadeh and Blake Masters are not new to crowded primaries. Hamadeh won the Republican attorney general primary with 34% of the vote, and Masters won the Republican U.S. Senate primary with 40%; both went on to lose competitive general elections. Kari Lake won the Republican gubernatorial primary with 48% of the vote, and went on to become the first Republican gubernatorial nominee to lose the state since 2006. Mark Finchem won the Republican secretary of state primary with 43% – and lost the general election. In contrast, the one statewide Republican nominee who won her primary with majority support, Kimberly Yee, easily won re-election as state treasurer.
Ranked choice voting would benefit Arizona voters and parties alike. More voters would be represented, and candidates would advance to general elections stronger – with a majority of their party behind them.
When asked about ranked choice voting last year, Arizona Secretary of State Adrian Fontes said:
It saves tons of money, I think you will have much more intelligent conversations and, therefore, eventually get much better policy makers.
Four of Arizona’s neighboring states – California, Colorado, New Mexico, and Utah – already use RCV in some local elections. This November, Idaho, Nevada, Oregon, and possibly Colorado will vote on adopting RCV statewide, and more states could join them.
Arizona should follow the lead of its neighbors by implementing RCV. Stay up to date with the latest RCV efforts in the state here.
Note: This post was last updated on August 2, 2024 to reflect the latest results.
