Crowded primaries will shape the 2026 midterms. They need ranked choice voting.

Rachel Hutchinson | December 08, 2025

The 2026 midterm election cycle is already in full swing. A record-breaking wave of political retirements has opened seats across the country, and crowded primaries are emerging in races at every level of government.

More choices for voters should be a good thing – but with the choose-one election system used in most states, large fields often lead to vote-splitting and winners without majority support. Ranked choice voting (RCV) offers a simple fix, allowing robust competition while ensuring every race produces a majority winner.

In 2022, 120 candidates won major-party primaries for U.S. House, Senate, and statewide offices with less than 50% of the vote.

The problem with crowded primaries

As exciting as strong competition may be, it comes with real risks: vote-splitting, non-majority winners, and the risk that a fraction of a fraction of voters chooses elected leaders for everyone.

Look to the 2022 midterm cycle, when 120 candidates advanced from U.S. House, Senate, and statewide primaries despite earning support from less than 50% of their party’s voters. Those nominees included three Republican candidates for statewide office in Arizona, all of whom went on to lose in November despite a favorable partisan environment. Research shows that candidates who win their primaries without majority support perform worse in the general election than those who win with majority support.

Moreover, in competitive primaries, candidates often rely on negative attacks to gain an edge – a tactic already evident in the 2026 U.S. Senate primary in Texas. Negative campaigning in primaries can further damage a party’s chances in the general election; after the Arizona GOP’s experience in 2022, party officials had to warn future Senate candidates to play nice.

But most nominees don’t face significant competition in the general election – for example, only 37 of 435 U.S. House elections in 2024 were competitive, and that number is likely to drop in 2026. Non-representative candidates can win crowded primaries with 20 or 30% of the vote, coast to victory in November, and then have an outsized effect on policies that impact their state or even the entire country.

Below is a snapshot of some of the most noteworthy (and most crowded) primaries starting to take shape.

Primaries for the U.S. Senate

ILLINOIS: Senate Minority Whip Dick Durbin of Illinois is retiring, and several Democrats have announced runs to replace him in this likely Democratic seat. The field includes two House Democrats who represent the Chicago area.
IOWA: Republican Senator Joni Ernst of Iowa is also retiring. Some Democrats see this as a possible pickup opportunity, so competition is heating up on both sides of the aisle. Rep. Ashley Hinson is currently considered the favorite among Republicans, with Iowa Attorney General Brenna Bird and Ambassador Matthew Whitaker as other possible candidates. Three major candidates have entered on the Democratic side.
MICHIGAN: Democratic Sen. Gary Peters’ decision not to seek re-election makes Michigan a key Senate battleground. At least five Democrats – including Rep. Haley Stevens, Abdul El-Sayed, and State Sen. Mallory McMorrow – are running to replace him. On the Republican side, 2024 Senate nominee Mike Rogers leads in fundraising.
MINNESOTA: Democrat Tina Smith’s retirement has left an open Senate seat in Minnesota. On the Democratic side, three candidates have declared they are running, with Rep. Angie Craig and Lieutenant Governor Penny Flanagan considered frontrunners. At least seven Republicans are running as well.
TEXAS: Texas Senator John Cornyn is seeking a fifth term, and faces at least 14 challengers in the Republican primary, including Attorney General Ken Paxton – a matchup that has already turned contentious. (If no candidate wins a majority in the primary, Texas would hold a primary runoff – which would likely see a major turnout decline and multi-million dollar price tag.) On the Democratic side, one major candidate – Rep. Collin Allred – has already dropped out of the race, saying he wants to avoid a “bruising” primary so the party can enter the general election unified.

Primaries for the U.S. House

CALIFORNIA: Former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi is retiring after almost 40 years in office. At least six Democrats are running in the nonpartisan, top-two primary for her San Francisco-based seat – including state Sen. Scott Wiener, Supervisor Connie Chan, and congressional staffer Saikat Chakrabarti. Several more candidates – including former Mayor London Breed – are expected to throw their hats in the ring.
NEW JERSEY: At least 15 Democrats are competing in the February special election for New Jersey’s 11th District, which was vacated this month by Governor-elect Mikie Sherill. Among the candidates are former Rep. Tom Malinowski – who seeks to return to Congress after losing his District 7 seat in 2022 – Lieutenant Governor Tahesha Way, and Essex County Commissioner Brendan Gill. Five Democrats have already filed in the neighboring 12th District to succeed retiring Rep. Bonnie Watson Coleman. Districts 2 and 7 also have crowded Democratic primary fields.
NEW YORK: At least ten candidates are vying for New York’s Manhattan-based 12th District, which is being vacated by Rep. Jerry Nadler. The candidates include big names like State Assemblyman Micah Lasher, Council Member Erik Bottcher, former “All Things Considered” host Jami Floyd, and Jack Schlossberg – grandson of President John F. Kennedy. Also retiring in New York is Rep. Nydia Velázquez, who served the state’s 7th District for 16 terms. Several lawmakers are exploring runs.

Primaries for governor

ARIZONA: At least three Republicans are competing for the chance to challenge Arizona’s Democratic Governor Katie Hobbs. Congressman Andy Biggs leads the most recent Emerson Poll, followed by attorney Karrin Taylor Robson and Congressman David Schweikert.
COLORADO: Colorado Governor Jared Polis is term-limited; at least six Democrats and 22 Republicans are running to replace him.
GEORGIA: Governor Brian Kemp is term-limited, and several Republicans are already campaigning to replace him. Those candidates include Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger, Lieutenant Governor Burt Jones, and Attorney General Chris Carr. Seven Democrats have also entered the race. Like Texas, George uses primary runoffs to identify majority-winning candidates; however, runoffs lengthen campaigns, incentivize negative campaigning, and usually see dramatic drops in turnout.
WISCONSIN: Governor Tony Evers’ retirement has set up Wisconsin’s first open gubernatorial race since 2010. Both parties have already seen multiple candidates enter the race, though the Democratic field is notably larger.

The solution: ranked choice voting

With ranked choice voting, voters rank the candidates in order of preference. If no one wins a majority of first choices, the candidate with the fewest votes is eliminated, and their supporters have their vote count toward their next choice. This process continues until a candidate wins with majority support.

RCV can curb the party infighting that leaves voters with a sour taste in their mouths; because candidates benefit from being the backup choice of their opponents’ supporters, they are incentivized to run more positive campaigns. RCV is already used for primaries in Maine, which has several crowded contests on the horizon for 2026, including an open gubernatorial race. Several state parties also use RCV for their caucuses or conventions.

That’s good for voters and parties alike: RCV elevates candidates who reflect their party’s voters and are better positioned to compete in the general election. Compare the Arizona GOP’s experience in 2022 to that of the Virginia GOP in 2021. Virginia Republicans used RCV to nominate their three statewide candidates, and all three went on to win competitive races. And in safe seats, RCV ensures that elected officials at least have to win over a majority of their party; even better would be fostering general-election competition by implementing RCV or proportional representation.

Competition can be a force for good, but with choose-one voting, it leaves parties fractured and voters unrepresented. The 2026 midterms are just the latest example of the problem. RCV channels competition in a healthier way, strengthening parties and elevating more representative nominees who can unite their voters.