Analyzing Arlington’s second ranked choice voting election

Tuesday marked Arlington, VA’s second Democratic County Board primary with ranked choice voting (RCV). According to results as of June 22, JD Spain won with 55% of the vote, after having led among voters’ first choices with 32%.

In a race with competing policy interests, RCV gave voters the power to rank the candidates that represented their interests best. RCV delivered a majority winner with both deep and broad support in a crowded contest. It also encouraged candidates to conduct more positive campaigns and seek support from more voters – even as their second choice. 95% of voters expressed their preference between the two strongest candidates.

It’s no surprise that in new exit polling, 88% of Arlington voters said RCV was easy and 67% want to use it again, with overwhelming majority support across demographic groups. After similarly positive support after Arlington’s 2023 RCV primary, the county made RCV permanent for County Board primaries and will pilot its use for the 2024 general election. 

RCV solves “vote-splitting” and delivers a representative outcome

Like Arlington’s 2023 RCV primary, much of the debate focused on Arlington’s zoning laws. Local papers, elected officials, and organizations embraced RCV and offered ranked endorsements of candidates – and their endorsements clarify how the candidates broke on zoning and other important issues. 

The GazetteLeader endorsed Natalie Roy and Julie Farnam, who both ran more development-skeptical campaigns; the urbanist site Greater Greater Washington and several local politicians endorsed Spain and Peterson, who both support more housing. James DeVita also ran a campaign critical of Arlington’s current “Missing Middle” housing expansion policy. 

Notably, RCV allowed a crowded contest without voters “splitting the vote” between multiple candidates with similar views. 89% of Farnam, DeVita, and Peterson voters took advantage of the opportunity to rank their ballot and weigh in between the two leading candidates – JD Spain and Natalie Roy. In total, 95% of all voters expressed their preference between Spain and Roy.

When Farnam was eliminated, a plurality of her voters (38%) ranked Roy as their second choice. When DeVita was eliminated, 52% of those voters ranked Roy as their backup choice. When Peterson was eliminated, 62% of those voters ranked Spain as their backup choice.

Ultimately, RCV delivered a majority winner with both deep (1st-choice) and broad (backup-choice) support. Spain received the most first choices, but needed backup-choice support – largely from Peterson voters – to complete his majority coalition and secure a win. Without RCV, Spain may still have won the race – but with less than one-third of the vote, and most voters opposing him.

RCV delivers a better campaign

RCV has been shown to promote positive campaigning, and Arlington was no exception. Candidates offered rich, issues-focused platforms rather than negative attacks on individual opponents. Both Peterson and Spain specifically asked voters to rank them #2 if they were ranking another candidate #1 – a demonstration of how RCV encourages candidates to reach out to a wider swath of voters. A new study in Electoral Studies finds that campaigns in localities using RCV “have greater incidences of direct voter contacting.”  

Contrast that with Virginia’s single-choice primaries held on the same day. In the 7th and 10th Congressional Districts, candidates won with as little as 30% of their party behind them – putting their parties in a worse position ahead of the general election. The 10th District Democratic primary was also noted for its toxicity, with personal attacks taking center stage instead of policy differences.

Arlington sets an example for Virginia

Arlington became the first Virginia county to use RCV in a government-run election in its 2023 County Board primary, making use of a state law that lets all localities use RCV. 

The pilot was a clear success: About 70% of voters reported a “positive,” “exceptional,” or “fair” experience with RCV. Candidates, community leaders, and administrators commended the smooth administration of the contest. This led the County Board to unanimously approve RCV for all future Board primaries, and to pilot RCV for the 2024 general election.

RCV is the fastest-growing election reform in the nation, with 50 cities, counties, and states using it in their public elections. It is also widely used in party-run contests, including several Virginia GOP and Democratic contests in recent years. Virginia Republicans used RCV to nominate their successful 2021 ticket, led by now-Governor Glenn Youngkin.   

We hope Arlington’s success will inspire other Virginia municipalities to reform their elections as well. Visit UpVote Virginia today to help bring RCV to your community!

This post was updated on June 22, after complete results were posted.