Analyzing results from Arlington’s first proportional RCV election
On Tuesday, June 20, Arlington became the first Virginia jurisdiction to use ranked choice voting (RCV) in a government-run election – its Democratic primary for County Board. As an Arlington voter myself, I was excited to rank my candidates for County Board; I was able to express more preferences among the candidates, and vote honestly without fear of “spoiling” the race.
To nominate candidates for the two open board seats, Arlington used proportional ranked choice voting – ensuring a representative outcome and that a vast majority of voters were able to help nominate a candidate they support. Six candidates ran for the two seats, and voters could rank up to three candidates. Our analysis, last updated on June 27 with final results, is below:
Nominees depended on both deep (1st-choice) and broad (backup-choice) support
Arlington Democrats selected Susan Cunningham and Maureen Coffey as their nominees, making them general election favorites in the heavily Democratic county. Both candidates had strong showings among voters’ first choices, with Susan Cunningham and Maureen Coffey earning 25% and 23% of the vote respectively.
Both candidates also earned significant second- and third-choice support. Susan Cunningham gained second-choice support from Natalie Roy, while Maureen Coffey gained backup-choice support from JD Spain. Ranked choice voting helped ensure that candidates who appeal to similar sets of voters did not “split the vote,” avoiding a distorted and unrepresentative outcome.
This election also saw the highest turnout of any Arlington Democratic primary for County Board, with approximately 28,130 ballots cast, easily surpassing the previous high in 2021 by over 4,800 ballots.
84% ranked a winning candidate first, second, or third
The two nominees received broad support from voters, in contrast to the most recent Democratic primary to fill two seats on the county board (in 2015). The 2015 election also featured six candidates and was conducted in a vote-for-two plurality system. That year’s nominees received 22.5% and 22.1% of the vote – a total of less than 45%.
In contrast, in this year’s contest, 84% of voters ranked a winning candidate on their ballot.
More representative outcome, no vote-splitting
Ranked choice voting allowed voters to express their preferences honestly, without fear of splitting the vote. With RCV, voters who selected a lower-performing candidate as their first choice were able to rank a candidate with a similar platform as a backup choice. As a result, the “pro-missing middle housing” contingent consolidated behind its strongest candidate in Maureen Coffey, and the “anti-missing middle” contingent consolidated behind its strongest candidate in Susan Cunningham.
This is a representative outcome: About half of voters ranked a candidate supportive of “missing middle” housing first; the other half ranked a candidate not supportive of “missing middle” first. However, there were four “pro-missing middle” candidates and only two “anti-missing middle” candidates; as a result, the two “anti” candidates finished 1st and 2nd among voters’ first choices – with combined total of only 49%, and each just a few percentage points ahead of their two closest opponents. Similar to the 2015 County Board election, the two candidates leading in first-choice support had less than a majority of votes.
RCV does not favor any policy preference, but it does ensure voters’ preferences are represented by the candidates they elect. On this issue that appears to divide Arlingtonians roughly 50-50, one candidate representing each side of the policy debate was nominated.
Voters ranked their ballots at high rates
Voters ranked their ballots at high rates, with second- and third-choice support key to the victories of Coffey and Cunningham.
90% of voters who selected a lower-performing candidate as their first choice also ranked a finalist on their ballot — ensuring that their vote made a maximal impact on the final outcome.
In single-choice election, nominee won without a majority
In contrast to the ranked choice election for County Board, the Arlington County Sheriff election was a single-choice election, with three candidates vying for the Democratic nomination. The winner, Jose Quiroz Jr., won the nomination with 39.7% of the vote. Without RCV, the majority of voters did not get to elect their desired nominee.
More communities in Virginia and around the country could benefit from ranked choice voting and the representative outcomes it provides.
