What we’re watching in New York City’s ranked choice voting election on Tuesday
We’re just days away from New York City’s third election cycle using ranked choice voting (RCV). Here are some of the latest updates – including from multi-candidate downballot races where RCV could make an impact – and what to expect on Tuesday.
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Crowded field and cross-endorsements in the mayor’s race
The Democratic primary for mayor has 11 contenders. Former Governor Andrew Cuomo remains the frontrunner, and two recent polls show him holding a double-digit lead in first choices and the RCV count. Yet, Assembly Member Zohran Mamdani has closed the gap somewhat in recent days, even leading in one poll by Public Policy Polling.
In a race with this many candidates, no candidate is likely to have a majority of first-choice support, so the outcome will likely depend on candidates’ ability to earn voters’ backup choices.
Mamdani has actively sought and won cross-endorsements from other candidates, including New York City Comptroller Brad Lander and former Assembly member Michael Blake. After reaching the fundraising cap, Mamdani even encouraged his supporters to donate to Council Speaker Adrienne Adams – a sign of the kind of collaborative politics that RCV incentivizes. While Cuomo has not endorsed other candidates, he did receive an endorsement from a fellow candidate – State Sen. Jessica Ramos – and candidate Whitney Tilson said he would rank Cuomo second.
Under the old, single-choice system, lower-performing candidates might be elbowed out of the race (or told not to run in the first place) instead of cross-endorsing. Pundits and voters might blame these candidates for splitting the vote or “spoiling” the race. With RCV, voters get to decide – and the winner will have support from a majority of the primary electorate.
Other races to watch
Outside the race for Gracie Mansion, there are many interesting races in New York where ranked choice voting could make an impact. (Scroll down for more on the mayor’s race, including when to expect results and how the November general election is shaping up).
City comptroller
For instance, the Democratic primary for New York city comptroller – the city’s chief fiscal officer – boasts four candidates. As in the mayor’s race, the comptroller primary reflects jockeying between the moderate and progressive wings of the party. Manhattan Borough President Mark Levine has been endorsed by moderate figures like U.S. Reps. Ritchie Torres and George Latimer. Justin Brannan leads the progressive flank, with endorsements from the Working Families Party, U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders, and several labor unions. State Senator Keven Parker and civil servant Ismael Malave-Perez are also running, but trail Levine and Brannan in a poll commissioned by the Brannan campaign.
That same poll found 44% of voters are undecided, so it is still anyone’s game. There have not been any cross-endorsements between candidates, but it’s likely the candidate will need to earn voters’ second- and third-choice rankings in order to win.
City Council District 2
Several City Council seats are also open, with particularly competitive races in Democratic primaries for Districts 2, 21, and 28. Notably, in New York’s first cycle with RCV in 2021, the city elected its first-ever majority-female city council.
In District 2, which encompasses Manhattan’s Greenwich Village and Lower East Side, ten candidates are running to replace term-limited incumbent Carlina Rivera. The candidates include former U.S. Rep. Anthony Weiner, State Assembly Member Harvey Epstein, government and nonprofit program director Sarah Batchu, and Community Board 3 Chair Andrea Gordillo. Any of these candidates could win, and the winner will likely need backup-choice support from voters to earn a majority of votes.
City Council District 21
In District 21, a heavily Latino district including Queens’ East Elmhurst and Jackson Heights neighborhoods, the candidates are Erycka Montoya, Yanna Henriquez, Shanel Thomas-Henry, and David Aiken.
Montoya and Henriquez are the apparent frontrunners from the progressive and moderate wings, respectively, with Montoya winning the Working Families Party’s endorsement and Henriquez winning the Queens County Democrats’ endorsement. Thomas-Henry may be the dark horse, though she has won the endorsement of municipal workers’ union DC37, and was listed as a second choice by both the Working Families Party and Queens County Democrats in their ranked endorsements.
City Council District 28
Five candidates seek the Democratic nomination for Queens’ District 28, which includes the South Ozone Park and Jamaica neighborhoods. The District has a long-standing Black plurality, and also has growing South Asian and Indo-Caribbean populations.
Based on endorsements, the frontrunners are Adams’ Chief of Staff Tyrell “Ty” Hankerson and community organizer Latoya LeGrand, who are the picks of the moderate and progressive factions, respectively. Indo-Guyanese Romeo Hitlall, the District Governor for the Brooklyn & Queens Lions Club and Japneet Singh, who founded a nonprofit to combat hate crimes targeting South Asians, are also running and have both raised significant funds. Former Councilmember Ruben Wills is also running on criminal justice reform after being cleared of a 2017 wrongful conviction.
Whereas candidates from marginalized groups in single-choice races are often told to “wait their turn” to avoid splitting the vote, it’s a different situation with RCV. Candidates can run without fear of acting as spoilers, and voters can rank their favorite candidates first without worry about wasting their vote. This feature of RCV has contributed to significant gains for underrepresented groups in New York, including people of color and women.
When will we know the results?
New York will release first-choice results on election night, and will release preliminary ranked choice voting results on Tuesday, July 1.
The timeline is set by the NYC Board of Elections – which chooses to wait until all absentee ballots are received before running its RCV count. Nationally, the best practice is to report preliminary RCV results as soon as possible, and most cities report preliminary RCV results within 24 hours. The actual tabulation takes just seconds.
Whether it’s “pick-one” or RCV elections, the most important factor determining when election winners are projected is how close the race is, and how many late-arriving ballots there are. In particularly close races, there will be a wait for accurate results regardless of whether the races use RCV. For races that are not close, we’ll know the likely winners on election night.
Prior to adopting RCV, New Yorkers waited three weeks for any election that went to a runoff (if no candidate won 40% of the vote). Voters had to go to the polls a second time, candidates had to campaign for three more weeks, and the city had to spend millions of dollars holding an extra election.
Looking ahead to a competitive November mayoral election
Some Democrats have indicated they plan to run in the general election, including Eric Adams, who dropped out of the Democratic primary to focus on an independent run; and Andrew Cuomo, who has made plans to run on an independent ballot line regardless of whether he wins the Democratic primary under New York’s fusion voting system. In addition, the Working Families Party may run its own candidate in the general election – particularly if Democrats nominate a moderate like Cuomo. The outcome of Tuesday’s primary will give us a better sense of how those candidates might fare.
General elections in New York City do not use ranked choice voting, meaning a candidate could win with less than 50% support. With as many as four major candidates on the ballot – the Democratic nominee, the Republican nominee, a Working Families nominee, and Eric Adams – there’s a strong chance New York’s next mayor will take office with support from just a small fraction of voters.
New York City should expand ranked choice voting to its general elections, giving voters the same freedom they have in primaries, and ensuring winners reflect the whole electorate they serve.
