Washington primaries could be improved with ranked choice voting
Update 9/4/24: Following a 10-day hand recount of the Washington Public Lands Commissioner primary, Jaime Herrera Beutler (R) and Dave Upthegrove (D) will advance to the general election. Upthegrove and third-place candidate Sue Kuehl Pederson (R) were separated by less than one-fourth of 1% of the vote (53 votes), narrowly avoiding a scenario where two Republicans would advance to the general election even though Democratic candidates received more votes.
For the third election cycle in a row, Washington State voters may find themselves unable to vote for a candidate from their party for a statewide office.
In Washington State’s “top-two” nonpartisan primary system, candidates from all parties run against each other for two slots on the general election ballot. This system opens primaries to all voters, and its adoption in states like Washington and California has represented historic progress for the election reform movement. However, it can effectively “lock out” large groups of voters months before the general election, leaving them with no member of their party in the race – or lead to costly recounts that would be unnecessary if more candidates advanced to the general.
Nonpartisan primaries are better when paired with ranked choice voting (RCV) in the general election, which allows more candidates to advance and gives voters more choices in November. This model has been pioneered in Alaska, which uses nonpartisan primaries to advance four candidates to an RCV general election.
Possible statewide lockout headed to a recount
In Washington State’s public lands commissioner primary, there is a possibility that Democrats will be locked out of the general election even though 57% of voters voted for a Democrat in the primary, compared to 43% for Republicans. However, that 57% is split between five Democrats, while the 43% is split between only two Republicans.
As of August 20, Republican Jaime Herrera Beutler leads with 22% of the vote, with a tight battle for second place between Democrat Dave Upthegrove and Republican Sue Kuehl Pederson. In a blue-leaning state like Washington, Democrats would be favored to win the general election – but only if a Democrat makes the November ballot.
Preliminary results of Washington’s public lands commissioner primary
| Candidate | Party | Vote share |
| Jaime Herrera Beutler | Republican | 22.03% |
| Dave Upthegrove | Democrat | 20.82% |
| Sue Kuehl Pederson | Republican | 20.82% |
| Patrick DePoe | Democrat | 14.08% |
| Allen Lebovitz | Democrat | 10.20% |
| Kevin Van De Wege | Democrat | 7.52% |
| Jeralee Anderson | Democrat | 4.43% |
| Votes for Democratic candidates | 57.05% |
| Votes for Republican candidates | 42.85% |
With Upthegrove leading Kuehl Pederson by just 51 votes, the race will head to a recount, costing Washington more time and money. A “top 4” (or “final 5”) nonpartisan primary like Alaska’s could not only deliver a fairer outcome and a wider range of choices for voters on the November ballot – it could also save the time and expense of a recount, since both Upthegrove and Kuehl Pederson would advance.
Notably, Herrera Beutler was locked out of her own 2022 re-election campaign for the U.S. House of Representatives, with a Democrat and more conservative Republican advancing instead. The Democrat went on to win the reddish district, with analysts suggesting Herrera Beutler likely would have won if she had advanced to the general election.
This is also the third cycle in a row that a party could be locked out of a statewide race. In 2016, Democrats were locked out of the statewide treasurer contest, with voting patterns looking almost identical to the 2024 public lands race. In 2020, Republicans were locked out of the lieutenant governor race, though over 40% of voters cast a ballot for a Republican candidate in the primary. Even if Upthegrove holds his very slight lead over Kuehl Pederson and there is no lockout in the public lands contest, it’s clear the Evergreen State could benefit from additional reform.
Lockouts in Washington congressional races
There were also lockouts of major parties in two congressional elections. Washington’s 4th Congressional District primary advanced two Republicans, Jerrod Sessler and Dan Newhouse, with 33% and 23% of the vote, respectively. In the 9th Congressional District primary, Democrats Adam Smith and Melissa Chaudhry advanced with 54% and 21%, respectively. 25% of voters picked a Republican candidate, which would have been enough to advance a Republican to the general election if those voters had consolidated around a single choice. Instead, the vote was split between two Republicans – Paul Martin at 18% and Mark Greene at 7%.
As a result of these lockouts, general election voters in these districts won’t have a choice of which party represents them in Congress. However, Democrats in Washington’s 4th and Republicans in Washington’s 9th won’t be totally without a voice – these sizable minorities can play an important role in choosing which type of Republican (in the 4th) or Democrat (in the 9th) is elected.
Better elections with ranked choice voting
Washington could improve its elections by using ranked choice voting in primaries, or by following Alaska’s lead and adopting top 4 or final 5 primaries and RCV general elections.
With RCV primaries, voters and parties alike wouldn’t need to worry about lockouts caused by vote-splitting, and general election candidates would have support from more voters. For example, Republican-leaning voters in Washington 9th District could rank the Republican candidates, with their votes ultimately consolidating behind the strongest one. Likewise, Democrats could consolidate around their strongest candidate for public lands commissioner.
With an Alaska-style system – which is on the ballot in Nevada, Idaho, and likely Colorado this November – candidates from all parties would still run on the same primary ballot. Yet rather than competing for just two slots, the top four vote-getters would move on to the general election, where voters could rank them using RCV. This would make lockouts far less common, since there would be two or three more slots available in the general election.
Voters would be free to express their honest preferences – rather than worry that voting for their favorite candidate could splinter support among candidates representing their preferred party or ideology, and actually help the candidate they like least. In the general election, candidates would be rewarded for building broad coalitions of support – asking voters who support their rivals to rank them 2nd or 3rd.
Five cities and counties in the Pacific Northwest have adopted RCV for their elections – including Washington’s own largest city, Seattle. Washington was a leader in election reform by embracing top-two primaries; it can continue to innovate and improve its elections by embracing RCV, too. For more information on ranked choice voting in the Evergreen State, visit FairVote Washington!
