The Iowa Republican caucus should use ranked choice voting
When Iowa Republicans caucus on January 15, they will have a much smaller field of candidates to choose from than they did just a few months ago. The realities of single-choice elections have pressured several candidates to drop out to avoid “splitting the vote” or “playing spoiler” – the most recent being Chris Christie.
Of course, as former Michigan and Utah GOP chairs Saul Anuzis and Stan Lockhart point out in a recent op-ed, ranked choice voting (RCV) would make this unnecessary and let the voters decide:
If Republicans simply used ranked-choice voting in presidential primaries … No one would be forced to get out of the race before a single voter has cast an actual ballot. Republican voters could pick their winner, regardless of what any poll or New York Times article says, confident that the strongest candidate with a real majority would move on to the fall election poised to beat Joe Biden.
RCV could ensure a winning candidate that the majority of Republicans can support. Currently, Donald Trump is polling just above 50% in Iowa, but the last several competitive Iowa caucuses (on both sides) have been won with pluralities.
Unfortunately, it’s too late for Iowa Republicans to use RCV this primary season. Yet thanks to the wave of ranked choice polling we’ve seen in this primary (which followed FairVote’s own RCV polls), we have a better picture of voter preferences and how candidate departures impact the race. According to FiveThirtyEight’s Nathaniel Rakich, Nikki Haley will likely get a modest boost in Iowa as a result of Christie’s withdrawal:
Speaking of Iowa, Christie is currently polling at just 3 percent there, and only 37 percent of his supporters in the state told pollsters that Haley was their second choice. So Christie’s withdrawal will probably only give Haley a small boost in Iowa — maybe 1 point. That said, Haley is currently tied with Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis in our Iowa polling average at 17 percent, so even a small boost could be enough to put her in second place there.
RCV polling has had a huge impact on our understanding of voter preferences in the Republican presidential primary.
If the GOP used RCV to empower Republican primary voters to act on those preferences, the party could have a better primary. More of its leaders would be campaigning and criss-crossing the country, making their case and energizing voters. Voters, meanwhile, would be able to vote their honest preferences and – as the R Street Institute suggests in its report “Ranking Presidents” – coalesce around the best possible candidate.
