Ranked choice voting straw polls in Iowa and South Carolina offer insight on 2024 primaries

Political polling is a difficult science in the best of circumstances. When asking voters which one candidate they support in a single-winner election, all you learn is how they plan to vote on Election Day. Yet as American voters know, casting a ballot for a single candidate is often a strategic decision based on a lack of better options, not based on true preference. Thankfully, what ranked choice voting does for elections, it can also do for polling – revealing voters’ true preferences about a crowded field of candidates.

Recent presidential primary straw polls from Iowa and South Carolina demonstrate this effect. Throughout August, Better Ballot Iowa and Better Ballot SC (no connection) asked participants to rank presidential candidates in order of preference. 

Iowa and South Carolina are both key early primary states, and the results (while not scientific) illustrate the power of ranked choice polling even when – and perhaps especially when – it’s used to gauge voter sentiment in a single-winner election.

Pulse of Iowa straw poll: all respondents

For its poll, Better Ballot Iowa asked attendees at the Iowa State Fair to rank the candidates running for president (from all parties) in order of preference. Joe Biden leads among voters’ first-choices, with Republicans divided between numerous candidates. Through ranked choice voting, Republicans are able to consolidate around a single candidate. Trump defeats Biden in the final round, 55% to 45%.

Pulse of Iowa straw poll: Republican respondents

Among self-identified Republicans, Donald Trump leads among voters’ first choices and wins in the final round. However, many of the participants prefer other candidates.

Those who voted for candidates other than Trump are divided between several candidates in the single-choice primary, limiting their impact – but consolidate behind Ron DeSantis (with Tim Scott in third place) in the ranked choice voting scenario. Meanwhile, responses from self-described Republicans show Trump increasing his vote share by just 14 percentage points as candidates are eliminated and consolidate behind DeSantis in the RCV count.

South Carolina Republican primary straw poll

The South Carolina poll was conducted online, and South Carolina voters who identify as Republicans were asked to participate. Like the Iowa poll, this one also reveals a divided electorate. Former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley comes out on top, followed by Chris Christie, Tim Scott, and Donald Trump. While Haley leads with 21% of voters’ first choices, RCV allows her to build a strong consensus and win with 62% in the final round. Haley’s biggest boost comes when South Carolina Senator Tim Scott is eliminated, showing how RCV allows voters to consolidate around their favorite home-state candidate – instead of splitting the vote between them. 

These polls demonstrate that even in a single-winner election, ranked choice polling provides valuable information to political scientists, journalists, and candidates, which can prompt changes in their behavior that lead to better elections.