Recounts rarely change the outcome of elections, new report confirms
October 28, 2024 – With election day just over a week away, FairVote is releasing updated reports about 1) election recounts and 2) “faithless electors” that may prove useful this election season. FairVote has long tracked election recounts and “faithless electors” and is sharing the most up-to-date info.
1. Recounts Rarely Change the Outcome of Elections
FairVote’s updated report finds that recounts rarely change the outcome of a race. Margins must be exceptionally close for a change in outcome to be plausible.
The report looks at 6,929 statewide general elections from 2000 through 2023. During that time, there were only 36 completed statewide recounts. Only three of those 36 recounts changed the outcome of the race. In all three, the original margin of victory was less than 0.06 percentage points. Recounts tend to lead to small vote gains for both sides, and typically widen the gap between the top two candidates instead of decreasing it.
“The key takeaway from this report is how accurate our election results are. States should have a process in place for recounts to ensure voter trust and confidence, but we should not expect recounts to change outcomes unless the margin is razor-thin,” said Deb Otis, FairVote’s Director of Research and Policy and author of the report. “As we head into a high-stakes election cycle, let’s be clear: if candidates call for a recount when they’re trailing a statewide race by more than one-tenth of one percentage point, it’s extremely unlikely to change the outcome.”
2. Faithless electors have never changed presidential election results
FairVote is also releasing an updated analysis on “faithless electors,” electors in the Electoral College who cast a vote for someone other than their party’s presidential and vice presidential nominees. Faithless electors have never changed the outcome of a presidential election.
Currently, 38 states and Washington, D.C. require electors to vote for the candidate they pledged to support.
Our updated analysis covers the history of faithless electors and each state’s laws.
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FairVote is a nonpartisan organization seeking better elections for all. We research and advance voting reforms that make democracy more functional and representative for every American.
