August 10, 2022 — The special election for Alaska’s at-large U.S. House seat is less than one week away on August 16, and early voting began on Monday, August 1. Polling shows a tight race in Alaska’s first-ever ranked choice voting (RCV) election, which includes Republicans Sarah Palin and Nick Begich and Democrat Mary S. Peltola.

FairVote – a leading RCV expert and advocate for 30 years – offers these updated resources and recommendations for coverage:

1. RCV election results won’t be reported for 15 days following the election. That timeline is set by the Alaska Division of Elections and state law, not based on RCV. Alaska State law allows up to 15 days for an absentee ballot to be received after Election Day, and only 1st-choice results (not preliminary RCV results) will be reported for the first 15 days following the election. Preliminary RCV results will be released no earlier than August 31, and official results will likely be certified on September 2. Nationally, preliminary RCV results can be reported as early as Election Night if allowed by local law, as they were in Utah on Election Night 2021.

Alaska’s extended vote-counting period is not new or unique to RCV; Sen. Murkowski’s win in 2010 was called after 15 days, and Rep. Young and Sen. Sullivan’s wins in 2020 were called after eight days. (For primary elections, Alaska law allows up to 10 days for an absentee ballot to be received.)

2. It’s rare for a candidate to “come from behind” in an RCV race – but it could happen in Alaska, and it’s a feature, not a bug. Of the 522 single-winner RCV races since 2004, the candidate with the most 1st-choice support has won 502 times (or 96%). 18 of those “come-from-behind” winners were in 2nd place, and two were in 3rd place.

Candidates win an RCV race by building both deep (1st-choice) and broad (backup choice) support. For example, the candidate with the least 1st-choice support will automatically be eliminated in the first round of counting. Candidates must also build consensus beyond a narrow base to win a majority.

Recent polling suggests that Democrat Mary S. Peltola may have the most 1st-choice support, with Republican candidates Nick Begich and Sarah Palin splitting Republicans and conservative-leaning independents. When the lower-performing candidate of the two is eliminated, the other Republican may consolidate this vote and beat Peltola.

3. Voters understand and like RCV (and some Alaskans have used it before). From New York City to small-town Utah, exit polling and ballot records show that voters understand how to rank their ballots and like RCV. This includes elections where traditional “pick-one” and ranked choice races are on the same ballot – like the upcoming Alaska election and also New York City’s June 2021 primaries, where 95% of voters reported the ballot was simple to complete.

The people of Alaska voted to implement RCV, when they passed Ballot Measure 2 in 2020. This was after Alaska Democrats used RCV for their 2020 presidential primary – 99.8% of voters cast valid ballots, and 80% ranked at least two candidates.

4. RCV benefits consensus-building candidates who engage with the system. To be elected, candidates must receive a majority – which may include 2nd-choice support. As noted above, recent polling in Alaska suggests that no candidate will receive a majority of 1st-choice support, and candidates will need 2nd-choice support to win.

Voters take cues from candidates, and may be less likely to use their backup choices for candidates who speak out against RCV. So far, the Alaska GOP has run a “rank the red” campaign and Americans for Prosperity – Alaska has led a detailed voter education campaign, while Alaska Democrats have also spoken favorably about the reform.

More resources:

• Alaskans for Better Elections
• Alaskans for Better Elections – Ranked Choice Voting explainer video
• Alaska Division of Elections – Alaska Better Elections Implementation
• Alaska Division of Elections – Sample ballots
• Ranked Choice Voting Primer
• Where is Ranked Choice Voting Used?
• Sightline Institute – “In Alaska’s special election, a bipartisan mindset makes sense”
• Bruce Botelho (former Alaska AG) – “Listen to Alaskans: Ranked choice voting is a step forward for democracy”

Ranked choice voting and Alaska election experts available for interviews include:

• Rob Richie, FairVote President and CEO
• Deb Otis, FairVote Director of Research
• Jason Grenn, Executive Director, Alaskans for Better Elections

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FairVote is a nonpartisan organization seeking better elections for all. We research and advance voting reforms that make democracy more functional and representative for every American.