73% of Alaska Voters Ranked Multiple Candidates in Special U.S. House Election

FairVote’s analysis of cast vote record includes info on Peltola, Palin, and write-in voters’ rankings

September 9, 2022 – 73% of Alaska voters ranked at least two candidates in August 16’s U.S. House special election, according to a new FairVote analysis of the cast vote record released yesterday by the Alaska Division of Elections. That number is slightly above the national average of 71%, and notably high given that most ranked choice voting (RCV) contests to date have either been nonpartisan municipal races or primaries. 

Notably, Nick Begich dominated among the backup choices of both Mary Peltola and Sarah Palin voters, taking 63% of Peltola voters’ effective 2nd choices (after write-in 2nd choices are skipped) and 59% of Palin voters’ effective 2nd choices. 

“Ranked choice voting allowed tens of thousands of voters to show that their preferences are more nuanced than just a party label, and the cast vote record provides unprecedented transparency into those preferences,” said Rob Richie, President and CEO of FairVote, a nonpartisan organization seeking better elections. “You don’t win when you finish last, but the data suggests that Nick Begich is more competitive against Mary Peltola, and would be well-positioned to defeat her in a head-to-head race. That’s important information as Peltola pivots to her role as a Congresswoman and prepares to face Begich, Palin and Libertarian Chris Bye in the November election.” 

“85 percent of Alaska voters found ranked choice voting simple and 73 percent ranked at least two candidates. Thanks to the Alaska Division of Elections and Alaskans for Better Elections for their excellent voter education campaigns, and to the DOE for following best practices and releasing the cast vote record to the public,” said Deb Otis, Director of Research at FairVote. “It’s clear that ranked choice voting is off to a great start in Alaska, and we’ll have a much better sense of how it’s doing in November.” 

When reviewed alongside Patinkin Research Strategies / Alaskans for Better Elections polling, cast vote record data suggests that Alaska voters understood and effectively used the ranked ballot. These polls showed 85% of voters found RCV simple and 75% of voters who ranked only one candidate did so because “that was the only candidate I liked”. 

More findings from the analysis include: 

Overall

73% of voters ranked at least two candidates, slightly above the national average of 71% in previous RCV elections.  

39% of voters ranked two candidates. 29% ranked three candidates. 5% ranked four candidates, which would include a write-in. 27% ranked only one candidate. 

Begich 1st-choices

Among voters who ranked Nick Begich 1st, 80% ranked at least two candidates. This was the highest among the three candidates on the ballot, and offers evidence of voters ranking when it matters most. Polling showed that Begich was likely to finish in last place in the first round of counting, with Begich voters’ 2nd-choices likely to be decisive. 

Among voters who ranked Nick Begich 1st: 

• 50% ranked Palin 2nd
• 28% ranked Peltola 2nd (29% after write-ins skipped) 
• 3% ranked a write-in candidate 2nd

Palin 1st-choices

Among voters who ranked Sarah Palin 1st, 65% ranked at least two candidates. Unsurprisingly, this was the lowest among the three candidates on the ballot – Palin didn’t rank her own ballot, repeatedly criticized the system, and discouraged her voters from ranking. Still, a sizable majority of Palin voters did rank, with most using their 2nd choice to “rank the red.” 

Among voters who ranked Sarah Palin 1st: 

• 57% ranked Begich 2nd (59% after write-ins skipped) 
• 6% ranked Peltola 2nd 
• 2% ranked a write-in candidate 2nd

Peltola 1st-choices

Among voters who ranked Mary Peltola 1st, 73% ranked at least two candidates. This was quite high, given that Peltola is a Democrat and the two other candidates on the ballot were conservative Republicans. However, it shows that Alaska voters have preferences that are more nuanced than just a party label. Democratic-leaning voters were willing to cross party lines and demonstrate their strong preference between the two Republican candidates. 

Among voters who ranked Mary Peltola 1st: 

• 56% ranked Begich 2nd (63% after write-ins skipped) 
• 5% ranked Palin 2nd 
• 11% ranked a write-in candidate 2nd

Write-in 1st-choices

Among voters who ranked a write-in candidate 1st, 82% ranked at least two candidates. Among voters who ranked write-in candidates 1st: 

• 35% ranked Begich 2nd
• 33% ranked Peltola 2nd
• 14% ranked Palin 2nd

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FairVote is a nonpartisan organization seeking better elections for all. We research and advance voting reforms that make democracy more functional and representative for every American.