Presidential Elections State-by-State: Hardening Partisanship

July 19, 2011

Over the last few decades, presidential election outcomes within the majority of states have become more and more predictable, to the point that only ten states were considered competitive in the 2012 election. Due to the state-by-state winner-take-all method of allocating Electoral College votes, competitive states receive much more campaign attention than their non-competitive counterparts.

The table below provides a state-by-state review of presidential outcomes and competitiveness. It shows how some states have not been competitive for than a half-century and how most states now have a degree of partisan imbalance that makes them highly unlikely to be in a swing state position for at least a decade.

Highlighted Findings:

Number of States Won by Same Party, 2000-2012 = 41 of 51 states (counting D.C)
Number of States Won by Same Party, 1992-2012 = 32
Number of States Won Only by Republican Party, 1980-2012 = 13
Number of States Won Only by Democratic Party, 1992-2012 = 19
Number of Safe Democratic States Not Swing State since 1988 = 7
Number of Safe Republican States Not Swing State since 1988 = 16

Definitions:

“Close state”: A state with a margin of victory less than 6% in a given election
“Swing state”: A state with partisanship rating between 47% and 53% in a given election
“Partisanship”: A state’s partisanship rating based on its deviation from the national partisan division between the major parties in a given presidential election

State	Last Year: Swing State	Last Year: Battleground	Last Year Won by Party That Lost State in 2012	# of Elections In a Row Won by Same Party
Alabama	1984	1980	1976	9
Alaska	1972	1968	1964	12
Arizona	1952	1996	1996	4
Arkansas	2000	2000	1996	4
California	1996	1988	1988	6
Colorado	2012	2012	2004	2
Connecticut	1992	1988	1988	6
Delaware	1992	1980	1988	6
District of Columbia*	(never)	(never)	(never)	13
Florida	2012	2012	2004	2
Georgia	1992	2008	1992	5
Hawaii	1992	1980	1984	7
Idaho	1948	1964	1964	12
Illinois	1988	1988	1988	6
Indiana	1984	2008	2008	1
Iowa	2012	2012	2004	2
Kansas	1988	1992	1964	12
Kentucky	1992	1996	1996	4
Louisiana	1996	1992	1996	4
Maine	2000	2000	1988	6
Maryland	1988	1988	1988	6
Massachusetts	1956	1984	1984	7
Michigan	2004	2004	1988	6
Minnesota	2012	2004	1972	10
Mississippi	1976	1996	1976	9
Missouri	2004	2008	1996	4
Montana	1992	2008	1992	5
Nebraska**	1912	1964	1964	12
Nevada	2012	2004	2004	2
New Hampshire	2012	2012	2000	3
New Jersey	1992	1992	1988	6
New Mexico	2004	2004	2004	2
New York	1976	1988	1984	7
North Carolina	2012	2012	2008	1
North Dakota	1988	1976	1964	12
Ohio	2012	2012	2004	2
Oklahoma	1976	1976	1964	12
Oregon	2000	2004	1984	7
Pennsylvania	2012	2012	1988	6
Rhode Island	1956	1984	1984	7
South Carolina	1960	1996	1976	9
South Dakota	1988	1996	1964	12
Tennessee	2000	2000	1996	4
Texas	1988	1996	1976	9
Utah	1948	1912	1964	12
Vermont	1988	1988	1988	6
Virginia	2012	2012	2004	2
Washington	2000	2000	1984	7
West Virginia	1972	1988	1996	4
Wisconsin	2012	2004	1984	7
Wyoming	1956	1992	1964	12

* The District of Columbia did not vote in presidential elections until the election of 1964, three years after the ratification of the 23rd amendment. It has voted for the Democratic candidate in every election since 1964.

**In 2008, Nebraska’s 2nd congressional district was both a swing district and went to Barack Obama (D). However, the state as a whole has been solidly Republican for 50 years.