Analysis: Portland election has high voter engagement and strong consensus for winners
This post was last updated on April 25, 2025. Comprehensive coverage of Portland’s first ranked choice voting election is available on this page.
As shared in a prior post with a more qualitative focus, Portland, Oregon’s first use of ranked choice voting (RCV) – including proportional RCV for City Council – has largely delivered on its promises. The city’s move to ranked choice voting was part of a larger charter reform that also included expanding the size of its Council and moving from at-large elections to a district-based system.
This analysis focuses on quantitative questions about down-ballot dropoff (also known as “undervoting”) and turnout that have been covered in The Oregonian, and also includes data showing how a far greater number of Portland voters elected a candidate of their choice because of RCV and proportional RCV.
Down-ballot dropoff comparable to prior elections
Despite an Oregonian article suggesting an unusual ballot dropoff for local races in 2024, the number of voters who voted for federal or state races at the top of the ticket but declined to vote for municipal offices was on par with 2012 and 2016 – two of the last three presidential cycles.
Mayoral undervotes in 2024 were higher than the last mayoral general election in 2020, but slightly lower than the 2012 election. For the City Council race (office formerly known as city commissioner), the undervote rate was higher than in 2020 but still a drop from the rates in 2016 and 2012.
| Election | % Undervote |
|---|---|
| 2024 mayor | 13.4% |
| 2024 City Council | 21.4% |
| 2020 mayor | 5.8% |
| 2020 commissioner | 12.5% |
| 2016 mayor | N/A |
| 2016 commissioner | 22.2% |
| 2012 mayor | 13.8% |
| 2012 commissioner | 23.5% |
Note: An undervote is defined as a ballot that was returned but did not vote for (or rank) any candidates in the contest in question. The 2016 Portland mayoral election was decided in a primary; there is no apples-to-apples comparison.
The higher undervote rate compared to 2020 is likely a result of the crowded mayoral and City Council races causing them to be printed on separate ballot pages (pages 3 and 4); by comparison, both races were on the same first page as the presidential election in 2020. We share more thoughts on the high number of candidates in Portland in this analysis.
Voter participation in District 1, highlighted in The Oregonian, was also comparable to prior years. Prior to charter reform, there were no city commissioners from East Portland, and there had only been two in the city’s history. Now, the area has elected three councilors to represent its voters. However, the undervote continues to be higher than in other parts of the city – speaking to the need for ongoing work to engage voters in this district.
| Election | % Undervote |
|---|---|
| 2024 Council – District 1 only | 29.4% |
| 2020 commissioner – District 1 only | 18.3% |
| 2016 commissioner – District 1 only | 25.6% |
| 2012 commissioner – District 1 only | 25.3% |
Higher voter turnout in Portland than statewide
Turnout tends to be driven primarily by races at the top of the ballot, though recent research also suggests that RCV leads to higher turnout in municipal elections. However, The Oregonian’s editorial board has suggested that a decrease in voter turnout in the Portland city elections may be driven by the city’s new system of government.
In contrast to this claim, Portland outperformed both the statewide average and surrounding counties when comparing turnout to 2020. Notably, turnout decline was lower in Portland than statewide, and lower in Portland than in the non-Portland parts of Multnomah County.
Note that 2024 numbers are estimates as not all ballots have been counted. These rely on several sources, all of which are linked.
| Oregon (statewide) | Portland city elections | Multnomah County, OR (includes 99% of Portlanders) | Washington County, OR | Clackamas County, OR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 turnout | 80.3% | 81.1% | 80.0% | 81.1% | 80.9% |
| 2020 turnout | 78.5% | 83.1% | 81.8% | 84.8% | 84.7% |
| 2024 turnout(As of Nov. 12) | 69.7% | 74.7% | 70.6% | 74.6% | 72.7% |
| Decline from 2020 to 2024 | 8.8 points | 8.4 points | 11.2 points | 10.2 points | 12 points |
Proportional RCV made more votes count
Ranked choice voting makes more votes count because voters have the option to rank backup choices. If a voter’s first choice can’t win (or can win a seat without that voter’s help), their ballot will count for their next choice who is still in the race.
In the mayor’s race, 84% of voters weighed in between the top two candidates – Keith Wilson and Carmen Rubio – compared to just 56% who did so in the first round. That represents 83,950 more voters who were able to weigh in because of ranked choice voting.
For City Council races, the vast majority of voters elected at least one candidate of their choice in their district.
| District | Voters who elected at least one candidate of their choice |
|---|---|
| District 1 | 80% |
| District 2 | 84% |
| District 3 | 87% |
| District 4 | 85% |
Note: These numbers may continue to be updated as Portland updates its cast vote record.
Simply by offering voters the option to rank candidates, ranked choice voting gave Portlanders more power.
Appendix
While The Oregonian uses the “undervote” rate calculated above, we could also compare the percentages of voters who voted for at least one office on their ballot and who voted in municipal races.
This data tells a similar story: The number of voters who voted for federal or state races at the top of the ticket but declined to vote for municipal offices was on par with 2012 and 2016 – two of the last three presidential cycles.
| Election | Turnout for top of ballot (%) | Municipal turnout (%) | Turnout gap: Total turnout – municipal turnout |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 mayor | 74.8% | 64.8% | 10.0 points |
| 2024 City Council | 74.8% | 58.8% | 16.0 points |
| 2020 mayor | 83.1% | 77.4% | 5.7 points |
| 2020 commissioner | 83.1% | 71.8% | 11.2 points |
| 2016 mayor | 80.4% | N/A | N/A |
| 2016 commissioner | 80.4% | 62.6% | 17.8 points |
| 2012 mayor | 83.2% | 71.7% | 11.5 points |
| 2012 commissioner | 83.2% | 63.6% | 19.6 points |
