Plurality wins in the 2024 general election
In January, eight U.S. representatives and senators will take office despite a majority of their constituents having voted for other candidates. Many fault third-party “spoiler” candidates for these “plurality wins,” but single-choice voting is actually to blame. Ranked choice voting (RCV), on the other hand, identifies majority winners, even when third-party and independent candidates run.
Most states use single-choice voting to elect their representative and senators; each voter chooses one candidate, and the candidate with the most votes wins. When more than two candidates enter the race, it is possible for one to win with less than 50% of votes.
On Election Day, this happened in four U.S. Senate and four U.S. House races, listed in the table below. In each of these races, the third-party and/or independent vote share was larger than the margin of victory between the Republican and Democrat. This means we cannot be sure if these winners truly had the broadest support in their respective races, or if the result was a function of the way the votes happened to be split. Because third-party and independent candidates often siphon votes from the major party they are ideologically closer to, they are often labeled “spoilers.”
Sometimes, savvy politicos even weaponize single-choice voting by propping up spoiler candidates.
- According to one article, Republican operatives suspected that the “Save Western Culture PAC” sabotaged Republicans in competitive races by bolstering Libertarian candidates. According to the article, the PAC funded fliers in support of Libertarian candidate Tom Bailey in North Carolina’s 1st Congressional District. Bailey ultimately won 9,945 votes, larger than the 6,281 margin between winner Democratic Don Davis and Republican Laurie Buckout.
- In Wisconsin’s U.S. Senate race, Republicans called America First candidate Thomas Leager a “fake Dem plant” and “fraudulent candidate.” Leager and independent-libertarian Phil Anderson won a combined 71,068 votes, more than the 29,116 margin between winner Democrat Tammy Baldwin and Republican Eric Hovde. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, House Majority PAC, and Baldwin campaign denied taking part in Leager’s candidacy. However, Leager was first recruited by the “shadowy” Patriots Run Project, which has ties with Democratic consulting firms.
Hovde himself and U.S. Senator John Fetterman (D-PA) are among the commentators who have blamed third-party candidates for outcomes in major races this year.
Spoiler schemes – and finger-pointing – are hardly unique to this year or to congressional races; we see them year after year, from the presidential election down to state legislative contests. In a 2020 Florida State Senate race, incumbent Democrat Jose Javier Rodriguez lost to Republican Ileana Garcia by just 32 votes. Meanwhile, an independent candidate who shared the same last name as Rodriguez won over 6,000 votes. A GOP operative has since admitted to hiring an ex-senator to recruit the independent. In fact, the ex-senator was just sentenced to jail-time for his involvement.
Fortunately, plurality wins and spoiler schemes are avoidable. Ranked choice voting is a simple upgrade to the way we vote; it can identify a majority winner even when two or more candidates appear on the ballot. With RCV, voters can rank the candidates in order of preference. If no candidate wins a majority of votes, an “instant runoff” occurs. It’s faster, cheaper, and better than the runoff system used in Georgia and other Southern states.
With RCV, third-party and independent candidates can run without playing “spoiler.” Their supporters can vote their conscience and still weigh in between the Republican and Democrat. Candidates must win a majority of votes, whether with first-choice support alone or with second- and third-choice support as well.
Alaska and Maine already use RCV to elect their U.S. senators and representatives. The Ranked Choice Voting Act – a federal bill introduced in September – would institute RCV for all primary and general elections for the U.S. House and Senate.
With ranked choice voting, more candidates can run, voters have more choices, and we can get a majority winner who reflects voters’ preferences in every state and district.
