FairVote analysis of ranked choice voting count in Maine’s 2nd congressional district
On November 7, the Maine Secretary of State’s office shared that the race for the state’s 2nd Congressional District would go to a ranked choice voting (RCV) count. Democratic Rep. Jared Golden leads the race by 2,159 votes going into the tabulation.
| Candidate | First choices | First choice % |
|---|---|---|
| Jared Golden (D) | 196,189 | 48.65% |
| Austin Theriault (R) | 194,030 | 48.11% |
| Diana Merenda (declared write-in) | 420 | 0.10% |
| Ballots with blank 1st choice | 12,635 | 3.13% |
Utilizing past data on “blank 1st choice” voters in Maine’s 2nd Congressional District, we find Golden to be a heavy favorite and find it unlikely that his opponent Austin Theriault will overtake him.
In the 2022 ME-2 race, 6% of ballots that did not mark a first choice marked a valid second choice. In the 2018 ME-2 race, 9% of ballots that did not mark a first choice marked a valid second choice.
Readers can use the interactive tool below to see how the results will change based on the percentage of “no 1st choice” ballots that include a second choice, and the percentage of “no 1st choice” and Diana Merenda ballots that include Theriault as their second choice.
Decision Desk HQ and the Bangor Daily News have already called the race for Rep. Golden, and FairVote’s analysis would affirm that projection. Even if an unusually high 15% of the 12,635 “blank 1st choice” ballots identified by the Secretary of State include a valid 2nd choice, Theriault would need to be ranked 2nd on 97% of Merenda and these hypothetical skipped 1st-choice ballots to overcome Golden.
