Chris Christie departure helps Nikki Haley, ranked polling shows
Chris Christie announced yesterday that he is dropping out of the race for president. With caucuses and primaries beginning this month, ranked choice polling helps us predict the likely impacts in real time.
By measuring voters’ backup choices, ranked choice polling provides valuable insights on whom voters will support when their favorite candidate drops out. In a WPA Intelligence/FairVote poll released in early October, a majority of Christie voters supported Nikki Haley as a backup choice. About a third supported Asa Hutchinson as a backup, and far smaller shares supported Ron DeSantis, Vivek Ramaswamy, and Donald Trump.
Second choices of Chris Christie supporters
| Candidate | How many Chris Christie voters prefer this candidate as their backup choice? |
| Nikki Haley | 53% |
| Asa Hutchinson | 32% |
| Ron DeSantis | 9% |
| Vivek Ramaswamy | 4% |
| Donald Trump | 2% |
Below are our updated projections for each candidate now that Christie has dropped out, with a margin of error of 3.5%. While this is a somewhat older poll (Trump’s standing has improved and Ramaswamy’s has fallen in most polls since October), it still very clearly shows how Christie voters are likely to move.
Projected candidate vote totals, national poll
| New first-choice totals (projected) | Previous first-choice totals | |
| Trump | 49% | 48% |
| Haley | 16% | 11% |
| Ramaswamy | 15% | 15% |
| DeSantis | 15% | 14% |
| Hutchinson | 5% | 2% |
| Christie | – | 10% |
However, early-state polling paints a different picture from national polling. Our poll shows Haley and Trump neck-and-neck in all-important New Hampshire after Haley earns support from the bulk of Christie voters.
Projected candidate vote totals, New Hampshire
| Candidate | New first-choice totals (projected) | Previous first-choice totals |
| Trump | 31% | 31% |
| Haley | 31% | 11% |
| Ramaswamy | 17% | 14% |
| DeSantis | 11% | 9% |
| Hutchinson | 9% | 0% |
| Christie | – | 34% |
This use of ranked choice polling is catching on around the nation – and other recent polls also use it to show that Chris Christie supporters will likely move to Haley. In a recent CNN/University of New Hampshire poll, 65% of Christie’s supporters in New Hampshire picked Haley as their second choice. Haley originally trailed Trump by 7 points in that poll, but Christie’s departure brings her even with Trump. A recent post from ABC News/538 includes firms from YouGov to Decision Desk HQ asking voters to rank their choices in polls – with analysts using those rankings to better understand the field and the impacts of candidate dropouts.
Ranked choice voting makes more votes count
Despite Christie’s withdrawal, his name will still appear on the ballot in New Hampshire and other states where ballot deadlines have passed. This can lead to “wasted votes” cast by voters unaware he has dropped out. 700,000 Republican primary voters cast wasted votes in 2016, and three million Democratic primary voters did so in 2020.
Instead of allowing wasted votes, states should implement ranked choice voting and let voters rank candidates on their ballots. If a candidate drops out, voters who selected that candidate will have their vote count for their highest-ranked candidate who is still active. Ranked choice voting would give more Republican voters a voice in the nomination process, and prevent wasted votes in a crowded and volatile field of candidates.
Thankfully, four states and territories will use RCV in the 2024 presidential primaries. They include the U.S. Virgin Islands Republican caucus on February 8, which is third in the presidential nomination schedule after Iowa and New Hampshire. Maine and Alaska will use RCV in the general election as well. 2024 is shaping up to be the biggest year yet for RCV in presidential elections.
Update 2/15/24: While Alaska and Wyoming Democrats were originally scheduled to use RCV in their presidential primaries, they have since changed plans because several candidates have dropped out of the race.