The Maine Secretary of State’s office has released the cast vote record – an anonymized record of every ballot cast – from the state’s ranked choice voting (RCV) primary elections on June 9. Releasing the cast vote record is a best practice that most cities, counties, and states using RCV follow.

Our initial analysis of Maine’s gubernatorial and congressional primary results found that the vast majority of voters weighed in between the finalists in each RCV race, and offered preliminary findings on how voters ranked their ballots. Now that the full ranking data is available, we can take a deeper dive into voter behavior.

Key findings include: 

• Voters used their rankings. 86% of Democratic voters ranked multiple candidates for governor. 71% did so in the Democratic primary for the 2nd Congressional District. In the Republican primary for governor, majorities of voters supporting every candidate other than Bobby Charles ranked multiple candidates; most Charles voters did not. 
• The cross-endorsement in the Democratic gubernatorial primary made a difference – but nominee Hannah Pingree’s support extended beyond it. 67% of voters ranked Pingree in their top three choices. The three Democrats who cross-endorsed for governor (Pingree, Shenna Bellows, and Troy Jackson) were commonly ranked by each other’s supporters. When Bellows and Jackson were eliminated in the RCV tally, 62% and 58% of their ballots transferred to Pingree.
• In the Democratic gubernatorial and 2nd district primaries, many supporters of the two finalists ranked both candidates highly. Including voters’ second and third choices, Hannah Pingree was the most common backup choice for Nirav Shah voters; 48% of her voters ranked Shah in their top three. Joe Baldacci and Matthew Dunlap were the most common backup choices for each other’s supporters.

Voters listen to candidates when ranking 

In the Democratic primary for governor, 86% of voters ranked multiple candidates. Voters for the three candidates who cross-endorsed – Pingree, Bellows, and Jackson – were most likely to rank two or more candidates. Shah also encouraged voters to rank their ballots by indicating he would rank Pingree on his own ballot, and releasing a video asking voters to consider him as a backup choice. 83% of Shah voters ranked multiple candidates.

Rankings used in the Democratic gubernatorial primary

Fewer Republican voters ranked multiple candidates for governor, with 46% of voters ranking two or more. Front-runner and eventual nominee Bobby Charles encouraged voters to rank him “straight across” and not rank any other candidates. 55% of Charles voters did exactly that, ranking Charles in all spots on their ballot. Just 28% of Charles voters ranked another candidate on their ballot.

However, majorities of voters for every other Republican candidate ranked two or more candidates. Voters whose first-choice candidate was eliminated early were most likely to rank two or more candidates – suggesting those voters understood well how their ballots would be counted. 

Rankings used in the Republican gubernatorial primary

In the Democratic primary for the 2nd Congressional District, 71% of voters ranked two or more candidates.

Rankings used in the Democratic 2nd Congressional District primary

Consensus support in Hannah Pingree’s “come-from-behind” victory

In the Democratic primary for Maine governor, Hannah Pingree trailed Nirav Shah in first-choice support, and won 56%-44% in the RCV tally. As noted earlier, Pingree was significantly more popular than Shah as a second and third choice.

Pingree had broad support from voters who ranked other candidates first, especially those ranking Troy Jackson and Shenna Bellows. Pingree, Jackson, and Bellows cross-endorsed in May, encouraging voters to rank each other in their top three choices. When Bellows and Jackson were eliminated in the RCV tally, their voters preferred Pingree to Shah by more than a 2-to-1 margin.

How ballots transferred to finalist candidates, Democratic gubernatorial primary 

Notably, Pingree’s popularity extended beyond the cross-endorsement; she was the most popular backup (top three) choice for Bellows, Shah, and King supporters. She slightly trailed Bellows as the most popular backup choice for Jackson supporters. 48% of Pingree voters also ranked Shah in their top three.

Most common backup choices by candidate in the Democratic gubernatorial primary

Matt Dunlap’s come-from-behind victory in the 2nd Congressional District

The Democratic primary for the 2nd Congressional District also saw a “come-from-behind” victory – Joseph Baldacci led in first choices with 32%, compared to 29% for his closest competitor, Matthew Dunlap. In the RCV count, Dunlap defeated Baldacci, 52-48%.

When trailing candidates were eliminated, Dunlap earned 63% of backup choices, compared to 37% for Baldacci. As in the governor’s race, RCV shows the overlaps in support between different candidates. Dunlap and Baldacci were branded as progressive and moderate, respectively – but 51% of Baldacci voters and 47% of Dunlap voters ranked the other finalist in their top three.

Most common backup choices by candidate in the Democratic CD-2 primary

Winners have strong consensus support

Winners of RCV races tend to be ranked highly on many ballots, even beyond the majority needed to be elected. The cast vote record data shows how many voters ranked each candidate in their top three choices – a robust measure of voter consensus. 

In total, 67% of voters (or 150,572 voters) in the Democratic gubernatorial primary ranked Pingree in their top three choices. 62% of voters (51,869 voters) in the 2nd Congressional District primary ranked Dunlap in their top three.

Share of voters who ranked each candidate first, second, and so on

Head-to-head matchups

Finally, the cast vote record allows for analysis of the head-to-head matchups between each candidate. In every election, the winner also beat all the other candidates in head-to-head matchups, making them a “Condorcet winner.”

How to read these charts: Read across rows. For example, read the top row as “Hannah Pingree is ranked higher than Nirav Shah on 56% of ballots, higher than Troy Jackson on 61% of ballots, higher than Shenna Bellows on 52% of ballots,” and so on.