FairVote analysis of Alaska’s preliminary cast vote record
This post was updated on November 20 to incorporate the latest election returns.
On November 19, the Alaska Division of Elections (DoE) released an updated preliminary cast vote record – a digital record of how all ballots were marked. This cast vote record is incomplete and preliminary; it does not include the outstanding absentee ballots still to be counted. There are an estimated 6,000 ballots left to count.
This data provides insight into voter behavior and expected outcomes of close races – including allowing us to run unofficial ranked choice voting (RCV) tabulations.
Begich wins the ranked choice count
In the cast vote record, Nick Begich has a 3-point lead over Mary Peltola among first choices. Because no candidate earned more than 50% of first choices, a ranked choice voting count will be conducted to determine the majority winner.
Begich is likely to widen his lead by a small amount. Decision Desk HQ has called the race for Begich, and FairVote’s analysis would affirm that projection. (Please note again: These first-choice totals are preliminary and incomplete.)
| Candidate | Round 1 | Round 2 | Round 3 | Round 4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Begich, Nick | 48.7% (158,894) | 48.8% (159,016) | 49.1% (159,286) | 51.6% (164,132) |
| Peltola, Mary | 46.0% (149,934) | 46.1% (150,044) | 46.6% (151,352) | 48.4% (154,076) |
| Howe, John Wayne | 4.0% (13,072) | 4.0% (13,151) | 4.3% (13,809) | |
| Hafner, Eric | 1.1% (3,478) | 1.1% (3,513) | ||
| Write-in | 0.2% (744) |
Voters for the last-place candidate, Eric Hafner, prefer Peltola over Begich, 46%-13%, with 41% not ranking either finalist. Voters for John Wayne Howe prefer Begich, 35% to 18%.
Our preliminary ranked choice tally shows that, when both Hafner and Howe are eliminated, Begich widens his lead over Peltola by about half a point, and wins 51.6%-48.4%.
Voters rank when it matters
The Alaska cast vote record also reveals how voters used the rankings on their ballot.
We found that 57% of Howe and Hafner voters ranked multiple candidates – far higher than the number of voters for Begich and Peltola. This is consistent with past evidence that voters understand how their ballot will be used, including in Alaska.
If a voter’s top choice is expected to be a frontrunner, they likely won’t need to rank backup choices. However, voters who support an underdog candidate know that ranking backup choices ensures they can weigh in between the finalists.
