National Popular Vote projection nearly spot on
FairVote
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Showing that there really is something to our method of measuring state partisanship and the connections between past results and this year’s results, my projection of Barack Obama winning 52.5% of the national popular vote made last night before 11 pm eastern time at a time while most states only had preliminary results is looking spot on. The latest popular vote percentages are:
Obama – 52.4%McCain – 46.3%Others – 1.3%
For all the talk of a “new electoral map,” it largely isn’t true — it’s simply a map that looks different when there is a distinct shift in the two-party vote. If we have a 50-50 election in the 2012 election, the map may lookremarkably as it did in 2004. We’ll have a full analysis soon.
